Reggiana 0-2 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reggiana face Ternana.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ternana make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Reggiana in Serie B (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Reggiana have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Reggiana's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ternana (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Ternana's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Reggiana, 1.40 for Ternana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Reggiana's last 10 home games and Ternana's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Reggiana's games and 80% of Ternana's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Reggiana, 1 for Ternana and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Reggiana 0–3 Ternana — a Ternana win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reggiana 62% and Ternana 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 46% | Ternana 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Reggiana surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Ternana have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.36 xG and Ternana 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.816 / defence 1.091 | Ternana attack 1.017 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.198. Ternana's defence rating of 1.254 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Reggiana's projected output up. Data: built from Reggiana's last 24 games and Ternana's last 62.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 36% | Draw 28% | Ternana 35%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.75 | Draw 3.51 | Ternana 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reggiana as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Reggiana 70% (last 10 home games) | Ternana 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 25 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 36% | Draw 28% | Ternana 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Reggiana 1.36 / Ternana 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.816 / def 1.091 | Ternana attack 1.017 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Ternana xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Ternana FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Ternana kick off?
Reggiana vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Ternana?
Reggiana 0 - 2 Ternana.
Where is Reggiana vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Ternana part of?
Reggiana vs Ternana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 36% chance of winning, Ternana a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Reggiana and Ternana will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Reggiana vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reggiana's attack rating (0.82) and Ternana's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (1.02x) against Reggiana's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 24 games and Ternana's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.51
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.69
1.33
Ternana xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Ternana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.33 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggiana come into this having played 24 games, going 6W 12D 6L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 0.92 PPG from 24 outings (5W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Reggiana against 0.92 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Reggiana's home form reads 2W 8D 1L across their last 11 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Ternana have taken 0.73 points per game from their last 11 away games (2W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reggiana are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reggiana have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Ternana in 67%.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Ternana
Blended
Reggiana (Home) vs Ternana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Reggiana vs Ternana Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Ternana in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 6W 12D 6L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while Ternana have gone 5W 7D 12L in their last 24 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Ternana away?
Reggiana's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.27 PPG; Ternana away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Reggiana and Ternana, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggiana
0
Draws
2
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Ternana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Ternana?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 0, Ternana have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Ternana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Reggiana 0-2 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Reggiana, 82% for Ternana — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Reggiana) and 82% (Ternana).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Ternana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Ternana matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Reggiana's games and 82% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Reggiana and Ternana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Reggiana's recent games and 82% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Ternana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Reggiana's recent matches and 73% of Ternana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Reggiana 0-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.36 xG and Ternana 1.33 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reggiana fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.82 / defence 1.09 against Ternana attack 1.02 / defence 1.25, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 36% | Draw 28% | Ternana 35%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ternana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 46%, Ternana 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Ternana's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.25 PPG, Ternana 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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