Reggiana 0-2 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Reggiana and Sassuolo meet at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Reggiana's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana's home record at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Reggiana are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.
Sassuolo have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Sassuolo have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sassuolo arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sassuolo half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 48% versus Sassuolo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 36% | Sassuolo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.12 xG and Sassuolo 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.982 / defence 1.138 | Sassuolo attack 1.232 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.051. Sassuolo have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Reggiana games / 14 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 26% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 43%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Sassuolo 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Reggiana 40% | Sassuolo 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 26% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Reggiana 1.12 / Sassuolo 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.982 / def 1.138 | Sassuolo attack 1.232 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Sassuolo xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Sassuolo kick off?
Reggiana vs Sassuolo kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 29 November 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Sassuolo?
Reggiana 0 - 2 Sassuolo.
Where is Reggiana vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Sassuolo part of?
Reggiana vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 26% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Reggiana and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Sassuolo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggiana and Sassuolo in?
Reggiana (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Sassuolo (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Reggiana vs Sassuolo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 0.98x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (1.23x) against Reggiana's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
26%
3.80
31%
3.24
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.59
1.47
Sassuolo xG
3.80
26%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
6%
16.56
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.47 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggiana come into this having played 52 games, going 13W 23D 16L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sassuolo sit at 1.17 PPG from 52 outings (16W 13D 23L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Reggiana against 1.17 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Reggiana's home form reads 5W 14D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Sassuolo have taken 0.96 points per game from 26 outings (6W 7D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Reggiana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.38 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 13W 23D 16L in their last 52 games (1.19 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 16W 13D 23L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Sassuolo away?
Reggiana's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.12 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggiana
0
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Sassuolo?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 0, Sassuolo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Sassuolo 5-1 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Sassuolo?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 54%, Sassuolo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Reggiana) and 54% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Reggiana keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Reggiana have failed to score in 27% of games; Sassuolo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Reggiana's games and 62% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Reggiana's recent games and 54% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Reggiana 0-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.12 xG and Sassuolo 1.47 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reggiana fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Sassuolo attack 1.23 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 26% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 43%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 36%, Sassuolo 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sassuolo's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.19 PPG, Sassuolo 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.