Reggiana 0-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Reggiana versus Salernitana in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reggiana have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Reggiana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Reggiana have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Salernitana's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Salernitana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Salernitana's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Reggiana's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Salernitana's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Salernitana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 51% versus Salernitana 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 40% | Salernitana 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.58 xG and Salernitana 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.994 / defence 1.221 | Salernitana attack 0.823 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.139. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Reggiana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Reggiana games / 5 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 46% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 26%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Salernitana 3.85. Reggiana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reggiana are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 40% | Salernitana 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 46% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Reggiana 1.58 / Salernitana 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.994 / def 1.221 | Salernitana attack 0.823 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Salernitana xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Salernitana kick off?
Reggiana vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Salernitana?
Reggiana 0 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Reggiana vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Salernitana part of?
Reggiana vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 46% chance of winning, Salernitana a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Reggiana and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Salernitana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggiana and Salernitana in?
Reggiana (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Salernitana (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 0.99x the league average against Salernitana's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.82x) against Reggiana's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.56
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.72
1.14
Salernitana xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
5%
18.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.14 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Reggiana come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 18D 13L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Reggiana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.53 PPG from 43 outings (4W 11D 28L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Salernitana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reggiana carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Reggiana's home form reads 4W 12D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.43 points per game from 21 outings (1W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggiana are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.95 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salernitana in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Early Season
Salernitana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 12W 18D 13L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 4W 11D 28L in their last 43 (0.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Salernitana away?
Reggiana's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.14 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Salernitana in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggiana
1
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Salernitana?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 0, Salernitana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Salernitana 2-1 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Salernitana?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggiana see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 57%, Salernitana 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Reggiana) and 62% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Reggiana's recent matches and 48% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggiana vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Reggiana's recent games and 62% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Salernitana tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reggiana's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana and Salernitana finished level at 0-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.58 xG and Salernitana 1.14 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reggiana fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Salernitana landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.99 / defence 1.22 against Salernitana attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 46% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 26%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 40%, Salernitana 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Salernitana's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggiana arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.