Reggiana 0-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pisa at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Reggiana welcome Pisa to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 12 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Reggiana have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Reggiana's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pisa stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pisa — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Reggiana, 1 for Pisa and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Reggiana 1–2 Pisa — a Pisa win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Reggiana in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Pisa in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 50% versus Pisa 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 39% | Pisa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.00 xG and Pisa 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.895 / defence 1.128 | Pisa attack 1.097 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.163. Data: built from Reggiana's last 70 games and Pisa's last 70.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 24% | Draw 30% | Pisa 46%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 4.08 | Draw 3.35 | Pisa 2.19. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reggiana 60% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, matchday 33 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 24% | Draw 30% | Pisa 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Reggiana 1.00 / Pisa 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.895 / def 1.128 | Pisa attack 1.097 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Pisa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Pisa xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Pisa FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Pisa kick off?
Reggiana vs Pisa kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Pisa?
Reggiana 0 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Reggiana vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Pisa part of?
Reggiana vs Pisa is a Serie B fixture (matchday 33) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 24% chance of winning, Pisa a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Reggiana and Pisa will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Reggiana vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 0.90x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 70 games and Pisa's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
24%
4.08
30%
3.35
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.44
1.44
Pisa xG
4.08
24%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
6%
17.22
17%
5.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.44 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggiana's recent record stands at 17W 28D 25L from 70 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 29W 20D 21L across 70 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reggiana heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Reggiana have managed 7W 17D 11L from their last 35 home games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 12W 9D 14L across their last 35 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Reggiana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.47 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 64%.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
Reggiana (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Reggiana vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Pisa in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 17W 28D 25L in their last 70 games (1.13 PPG), while Pisa have gone 29W 20D 21L in their last 70 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.09 PPG; Pisa away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Pisa have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Reggiana's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Reggiana
2
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Pisa?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 0, Pisa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2025: Reggiana 0-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 54%, Pisa 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Reggiana) and 46% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 31% of games; Pisa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Pisa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Reggiana's games and 57% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Reggiana and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Reggiana's recent games and 46% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Pisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Reggiana's recent matches and 69% of Pisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Reggiana 0-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.00 xG and Pisa 1.44 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reggiana fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.90 / defence 1.13 against Pisa attack 1.10 / defence 0.88, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 24% | Draw 30% | Pisa 46%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 39%, Pisa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 33
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →