Reggiana 1-2 Padova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Padova make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Reggiana in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reggiana have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Padova's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Padova have posted 3W 2D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.38 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Reggiana, 1.10 for Padova — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Padova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 60% versus Padova 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 53% | Padova 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.04 xG and Padova 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.924 / defence 0.905 | Padova attack 0.731 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.057. Data: 53 Reggiana games / 15 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 42% | Draw 35% | Padova 23%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Padova 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Padova's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reggiana as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 60% | Padova 38%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 42% | Draw 35% | Padova 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Reggiana 1.04 / Padova 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.924 / def 0.905 | Padova attack 0.731 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Padova xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Padova kick off?
Reggiana vs Padova kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Padova?
Reggiana 1 - 2 Padova.
Where is Reggiana vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Padova part of?
Reggiana vs Padova is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 42% chance of winning, Padova a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Reggiana and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Padova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggiana and Padova in?
Reggiana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Padova (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reggiana's attack rating (0.92) and Padova's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Padova's attack (0.73x) against Reggiana's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
42%
2.40
35%
2.83
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Reggiana xG
Total xG
1.74
0.70
Padova xG
2.40
42%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
8%
12.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Reggiana and 0.70 for Padova, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Reggiana have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 5W 5D 5L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Padova's form line: 4W 6D 5L from 15 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Reggiana against 1.20 for Padova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Reggiana have posted 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L).
On the road, Padova have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggiana are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 0.93 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reggiana have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Padova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Padova in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Padova have gone 4W 6D 5L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Padova away?
Reggiana's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.71 PPG; Padova away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Padova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Padova in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggiana
0
Draws
2
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Padova?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 0, Padova have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Padova last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Padova 1-0 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Padova?
Padova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Padova tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 57%, Padova 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Reggiana and 14% for Padova.
On the defensive side: Padova in 57%; Reggiana have failed to score in 29% of games; Padova in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Padova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Reggiana's recent matches and 29% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggiana vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Reggiana's recent games and 14% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Padova tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Padova in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Padova defy the odds to beat Reggiana 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Padova beat Reggiana 1-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.04 xG and Padova 0.70 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Padova outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Padova attack 0.73 / defence 0.85, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 42% | Draw 35% | Padova 23%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Padova win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 53%, Padova 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Padova's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.33 PPG, Padova 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Padova win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Padova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.