Reggiana 2-2 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reggiana face Mantova.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggiana host Mantova at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B (matchday 1). Kick-off is Sunday 18 August 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Reggiana — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Reggiana at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.34 xG and Mantova 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.867 / defence 1.029 | Mantova attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.213. Data: built from Reggiana's last 38 games and Mantova's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 42% | Draw 30% | Mantova 28%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.38 | Draw 3.36 | Mantova 3.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reggiana are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Reggiana 38 games, Mantova 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, matchday 1 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 42% | Draw 30% | Mantova 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Reggiana 1.34 / Mantova 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.867 / def 1.029 | Mantova attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Mantova xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Mantova FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Mantova kick off?
Reggiana vs Mantova kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Sunday 18 August 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Mantova?
Reggiana 2 - 2 Mantova.
Where is Reggiana vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Mantova part of?
Reggiana vs Mantova is a Serie B fixture (matchday 1) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 42% chance of winning, Mantova a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Reggiana and Mantova will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Reggiana vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 38 games and Mantova's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.36
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.41
1.06
Mantova xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Mantova Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.06 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Pre-Season
Mantova
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Reggiana (Home) vs Mantova (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Pre-Season
Mantova
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 10 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reggiana have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Reggiana's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Reggiana
1
Draws
0
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Mantova H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Mantova?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 3, Mantova have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Mantova last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2026: Reggiana 1-0 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Mantova?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Reggiana and Mantova share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 1, as Reggiana and Mantova drew 2-2 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.34 xG and Mantova 1.06 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mantova outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against Mantova attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 42% | Draw 30% | Mantova 28%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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