Reggiana 1-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reggiana face Brescia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Reggiana and Brescia meet at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Form
Reggiana (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Reggiana's home record over their last 7 home games: 1W 5D 1L (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brescia have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Brescia have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Reggiana against 0.90 for Brescia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Reggiana — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Brescia — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 53% versus Brescia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggiana 47% | Brescia 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 0.96 xG and Brescia 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.870 / defence 1.078 | Brescia attack 0.915 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.126. Data: built from Reggiana's last 15 games and Brescia's last 53.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 30% | Draw 33% | Brescia 37%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.34 | Draw 3.07 | Brescia 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Reggiana's last 7 home games and Brescia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reggiana 71% (last 7 home games) | Brescia 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 16 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 30% | Draw 33% | Brescia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Reggiana 0.96 / Brescia 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.870 / def 1.078 | Brescia attack 0.915 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Brescia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Brescia xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Brescia FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Brescia kick off?
Reggiana vs Brescia kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Brescia?
Reggiana 1 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Reggiana vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Brescia part of?
Reggiana vs Brescia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 16) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 30% chance of winning, Brescia a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Reggiana and Brescia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Reggiana vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.92x) against Reggiana's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 15 games and Brescia's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
30%
3.34
33%
3.07
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.08
1.11
Brescia xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.9 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Brescia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.11 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Reggiana have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 3W 7D 5L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Brescia's form line: 4W 6D 5L from 15 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Reggiana against 1.20 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Reggiana have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 7 home games (1W 5D 1L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 2W 3D 2L from their last 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggiana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 0.93 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Brescia
Blended
Reggiana (Home) vs Brescia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Reggiana vs Brescia Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Brescia in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 3W 7D 5L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Brescia have gone 4W 6D 5L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.14 PPG; Brescia away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Brescia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 13 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggiana
2
Draws
1
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Brescia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Brescia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 1, Brescia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Brescia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2025: Brescia 2-1 Reggiana.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 71%, Brescia 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Reggiana and 14% for Brescia.
On the defensive side: Brescia in 43%; Brescia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Brescia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Brescia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Reggiana's games and 43% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Reggiana and Brescia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Reggiana's recent games and 14% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Brescia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Reggiana's recent matches and 71% of Brescia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggiana and Brescia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 16, as Reggiana and Brescia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 0.96 xG and Brescia 1.11 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Brescia attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 30% | Draw 33% | Brescia 37%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 47%, Brescia 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.07 PPG, Brescia 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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