Pisa 2-1 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Perugia travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 February 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Perugia have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Perugia have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Pisa) versus 1.70 (Perugia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Pisa, 0 for Perugia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Perugia in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 52% versus Perugia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 38% | Perugia 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.24 xG and Perugia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.096 / defence 1.040 | Perugia attack 0.922 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.001. Data: 63 Pisa games / 63 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 30% | Perugia 28%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Perugia 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 50% | Perugia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 30% | Perugia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Pisa 1.24 / Perugia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.096 / def 1.040 | Perugia attack 0.922 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Pisa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Perugia xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Perugia kick off?
Pisa vs Perugia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Perugia?
Pisa 2 - 1 Perugia.
Where is Pisa vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Perugia part of?
Pisa vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 42% chance of winning, Perugia a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pisa and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Perugia?
Record (3 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 2 | Perugia 0W.
What form are Pisa and Perugia in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Perugia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.10) and Perugia's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.29
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.20
0.96
Perugia xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pisa and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Pisa and 0.96 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 24W 24D 16L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia's form line: 22W 21D 21L from 64 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.50 PPG, Perugia on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pisa have posted 1.71 PPG from 31 outings (14W 11D 6L).
On the road, Perugia have gone 10W 9D 12L from 31 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.09 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Perugia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Perugia in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 24W 24D 16L in their last 64 games (1.50 PPG), while Perugia have gone 22W 21D 21L in their last 64 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Perugia away?
Pisa's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.71 PPG; Perugia away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Pisa or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Perugia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Pisa's record when hosting Perugia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Pisa
2
Draws
0
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Perugia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2023, when Pisa 2-1 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Perugia?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 52%, Perugia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Pisa) and 39% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Perugia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Pisa's recent matches and 48% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Pisa's recent games and 39% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Perugia tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Perugia in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Perugia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Perugia 2-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.24 xG and Perugia 0.96 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against Perugia attack 0.92 / defence 0.97, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 42% | Draw 30% | Perugia 28%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 38%, Perugia 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Perugia's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.50 PPG, Perugia 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.