Pisa 0-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Genoa meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 5W 4D 1L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Genoa have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Pisa against 1.00 for Genoa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 52% versus Genoa 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 35% | Genoa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.60 xG and Genoa 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.077 / defence 1.027 | Genoa attack 0.967 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.085. Data: 40 Pisa games / 2 Genoa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pisa 49% | Draw 26% | Genoa 25%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Genoa 4.00. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 50% | Genoa 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 49% | Draw 26% | Genoa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Pisa 1.60 / Genoa 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.077 / def 1.027 | Genoa attack 0.967 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Pisa (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Genoa xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Genoa kick off?
Pisa vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Genoa?
Pisa 0 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Pisa vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Genoa part of?
Pisa vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 49% chance of winning, Genoa a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pisa and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Genoa in?
Pisa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Genoa (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.08) and Genoa's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.97x) against Pisa's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.87
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.68
1.08
Genoa xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
5%
19.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Pisa and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Pisa and 1.08 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 14D 11L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 0.80 PPG from 40 outings (5W 17D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pisa's home form reads 9W 9D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 0.70 points per game from 20 outings (2W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.72 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Genoa in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 15W 14D 11L in their last 40 games (1.48 PPG), while Genoa have gone 5W 17D 18L in their last 40 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Genoa away?
Pisa's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.80 PPG; Genoa away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Pisa or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Genoa in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Genoa?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 0, Genoa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Pisa 1-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 55%, Genoa 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Pisa) and 45% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Genoa in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Pisa's recent matches and 45% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Pisa's recent games and 45% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Genoa tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Genoa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Pisa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Pisa 0-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.60 xG and Genoa 1.08 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pisa fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Genoa attack 0.97 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 49% | Draw 26% | Genoa 25%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Genoa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 35%, Genoa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.