Pisa 2-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 70% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pisa face Carrarese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carrarese make the trip to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to face Pisa in Serie B (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Monday 13 January 2025 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Pisa (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Pisa have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Carrarese have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Carrarese's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Pisa, 1.60 for Carrarese — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Carrarese edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2024, ended Pisa 0–1 Carrarese — a Carrarese win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 55% versus Carrarese 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 55% | Carrarese 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 2.15 xG and Carrarese 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.433 / defence 0.894 | Carrarese attack 0.703 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.028. Pisa carry an above-average attack rating of 1.433 — their 2.15 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Carrarese's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pisa's projected output up. Carrarese's attack rating of 0.703 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Data: built from Pisa's last 58 games and Carrarese's last 20.
Result probabilities: Pisa 70% | Draw 22% | Carrarese 8%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.43 | Draw 4.55 | Carrarese 12.67. The model has a clear lean to Pisa (70%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pisa 60% (last 10 home games) | Carrarese 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 21 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Monday 13 January 2025 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 70% | Draw 22% | Carrarese 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Pisa 2.15 / Carrarese 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.433 / def 0.894 | Carrarese attack 0.703 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Pisa (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Carrarese xG
44%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs Carrarese FAQs
What time does Pisa vs Carrarese kick off?
Pisa vs Carrarese kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Monday 13 January 2025 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Carrarese?
Pisa 2 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Pisa vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Carrarese part of?
Pisa vs Carrarese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 21) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 70% chance of winning, Carrarese a 8% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pisa and Carrarese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Pisa vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pisa's attack at 1.43x the league average against Carrarese's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.70x) against Pisa's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 58 games and Carrarese's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 3-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
70%
1.43
22%
4.55
8%
12.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.79
0.65
Carrarese xG
1.43
70%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
12.67
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
12%
8.56
Win to Nil
37%
2.72
1%
108.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs Carrarese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pisa and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Pisa and 0.65 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Carrarese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Pisa have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 12W 5D 3L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Carrarese's form line: 7W 6D 7L from 20 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Carrarese.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pisa have posted 2.40 PPG from their last 10 home games (7W 3D 0L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.90 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Carrarese in 30%.
Defensively: Carrarese in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
Pisa (Home) vs Carrarese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Pisa vs Carrarese Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 12W 5D 3L in their last 20 games (2.05 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 7W 6D 7L in their last 20 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Carrarese away?
Pisa's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.40 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Pisa or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Carrarese in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 13 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pisa
0
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs Carrarese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Carrarese?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Carrarese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 January 2025: Pisa 2-1 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 60%, Carrarese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Pisa) and 40% (Carrarese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Carrarese in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs Carrarese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and Carrarese matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Pisa's games and 50% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pisa and Carrarese matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Pisa's matches and 40% of Carrarese's.
Do Pisa and Carrarese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Pisa's recent matches and 60% of Carrarese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Carrarese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Carrarese 2-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 2.15 xG and Carrarese 0.65 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.43 / defence 0.89 against Carrarese attack 0.70 / defence 1.25, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 70% | Draw 22% | Carrarese 8%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 55%, Carrarese 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Carrarese's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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