Pisa 2-0 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 30 as Pisa welcome Benevento to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Benevento have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Pisa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pisa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Benevento in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Pisa have won 2, Benevento 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Benevento in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 51% versus Benevento 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 37% | Benevento 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.16 xG and Benevento 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.073 / defence 1.043 | Benevento attack 0.940 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 0.959. Data: 67 Pisa games / 67 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 39% | Draw 32% | Benevento 28%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Benevento 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 70% | Benevento 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 39% | Draw 32% | Benevento 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Pisa 1.16 / Benevento 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.073 / def 1.043 | Benevento attack 0.940 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.179 / away 0.959 • Poisson stance: Pisa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Benevento xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Benevento kick off?
Pisa vs Benevento kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Benevento?
Pisa 2 - 0 Benevento.
Where is Pisa vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Benevento part of?
Pisa vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 39% chance of winning, Benevento a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pisa and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Benevento?
Record (5 meetings): Pisa 2W | Draws 1 | Benevento 2W.
What form are Pisa and Benevento in?
Pisa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Benevento (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pisa's attack at 1.07x the league average against Benevento's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
39%
2.54
32%
3.10
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.10
0.94
Benevento xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
9%
11.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Pisa and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Pisa and 0.94 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pisa come into this having played 70 games, going 28W 25D 17L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.40 PPG from 70 outings (26W 20D 24L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.56 PPG, Benevento on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pisa's home form reads 16W 12D 6L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Benevento have taken 1.41 points per game from 34 outings (12W 12D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.24 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Benevento
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Benevento in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 28W 25D 17L in their last 70 games (1.56 PPG), while Benevento have gone 26W 20D 24L in their last 70 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Benevento away?
Pisa's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.76 PPG; Benevento away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Pisa or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Benevento in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Benevento runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Benevento won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Benevento specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Pisa
1
Draws
2
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Benevento?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 3, Benevento have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Pisa 2-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Benevento?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 53%, Benevento 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 41% for Pisa and 26% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Benevento in 32%; Benevento in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Pisa's recent matches and 41% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Pisa's recent games and 26% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Benevento tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Benevento in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Benevento.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Benevento 2-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.16 xG and Benevento 0.94 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Benevento landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Benevento attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 39% | Draw 32% | Benevento 28%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 37%, Benevento 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Benevento's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.56 PPG, Benevento 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.