Pisa 1-0 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Ascoli meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ascoli have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pisa lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Ascoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ascoli — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 56% versus Ascoli 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 44% | Ascoli 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.29 xG and Ascoli 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.913 / defence 1.032 | Ascoli attack 0.856 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.150. Data: 55 Pisa games / 55 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 30% | Ascoli 28%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Ascoli 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 90% | Ascoli 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Dec 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 30% | Ascoli 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Pisa 1.29 / Ascoli 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.913 / def 1.032 | Ascoli attack 0.856 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Pisa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Ascoli xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Ascoli kick off?
Pisa vs Ascoli kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Ascoli?
Pisa 1 - 0 Ascoli.
Where is Pisa vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Ascoli part of?
Pisa vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 42% chance of winning, Ascoli a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pisa and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Ascoli?
Record (4 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 1 | Ascoli 2W.
What form are Pisa and Ascoli in?
Pisa (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Ascoli (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pisa's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (0.86x) against Pisa's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.37
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.31
1.02
Ascoli xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
8%
12.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Pisa and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Pisa and 1.02 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa's recent record stands at 15W 20D 20L from 55 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 24L across 55 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Pisa against 1.15 for Ascoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 8W 9D 10L from 27 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 6W 8D 13L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.04 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 15W 20D 20L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 16W 15D 24L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Ascoli away?
Pisa's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.22 PPG; Ascoli away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Pisa or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ascoli in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ascoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Pisa
1
Draws
3
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Ascoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Ascoli have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Ascoli 2-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Ascoli?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 67%, Ascoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Pisa) and 33% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Ascoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Ascoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pisa's games and 48% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Pisa's recent games and 33% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Ascoli tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Ascoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Ascoli 1-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.29 xG and Ascoli 1.02 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Ascoli attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 42% | Draw 30% | Ascoli 28%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 44%, Ascoli 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ascoli's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.18 PPG, Ascoli 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.