Perugia 1-0 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Perugia at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Perugia and Vicenza Virtus meet at Stadio Renato Curi in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Perugia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 2L across 7 games at Stadio Renato Curi this term (1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vicenza Virtus have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 6L across 8 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Perugia's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Vicenza Virtus's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Perugia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 47% versus Vicenza Virtus 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 27% | Vicenza Virtus 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.42 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.877 / defence 1.118 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.790 / defence 1.583. League average goals — home 1.024 / away 1.186. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.583 — this is suppressing Perugia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Perugia games / 15 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 45% | Draw 28% | Vicenza Virtus 27%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Vicenza Virtus 3.70. Perugia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Perugia as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Perugia 57% | Vicenza Virtus 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 45% | Draw 28% | Vicenza Virtus 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Perugia 1.42 / Vicenza Virtus 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.877 / def 1.118 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.790 / def 1.583 | league avg home 1.024 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Perugia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Vicenza Virtus xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus?
Perugia 1 - 0 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 45% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Perugia and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Perugia and Vicenza Virtus in?
Perugia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Perugia's attack at 0.88x the league average against Vicenza Virtus's defence at 1.58x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vicenza Virtus's attack (0.79x) against Perugia's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.55
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.47
1.05
Vicenza Virtus xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Perugia and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Perugia and 1.05 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Perugia have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 5W 7D 3L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 2W 1D 12L from 15 games, 0.47 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Perugia are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Perugia have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 0D 5L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Perugia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Perugia are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 5W 7D 3L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 1D 12L in their last 15 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Perugia's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.29 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Perugia or Vicenza Virtus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Vicenza Virtus in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Perugia
0
Draws
0
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Vicenza Virtus?
From 2 meetings on record, Perugia have won 2, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 1-2 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Vicenza Virtus?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 57%, Vicenza Virtus 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Perugia) and 71% (Vicenza Virtus).
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Perugia's games and 57% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Perugia's recent games and 71% of Vicenza Virtus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Perugia edge out Vicenza Virtus 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Vicenza Virtus 1-0 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.42 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.05 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vicenza Virtus landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.79 / defence 1.58, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 45% | Draw 28% | Vicenza Virtus 27%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 27%, Vicenza Virtus 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Perugia arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.47. Form held, and they took the win. Perugia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.