Perugia 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Parma travel to Stadio Renato Curi to take on Perugia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Perugia have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Perugia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Renato Curi, Perugia have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Parma — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Parma have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Perugia 1.20 PPG, Parma 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Perugia have won 1, Parma 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Perugia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Perugia trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 16% of games (home games).
Parma trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 51% versus Parma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 31% | Parma 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.13 xG and Parma 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.947 / defence 0.905 | Parma attack 0.988 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.127. Data: 39 Perugia games / 39 Parma games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Perugia 38% | Draw 31% | Parma 32%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Parma 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Perugia as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 40% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 38% | Draw 31% | Parma 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Perugia 1.13 / Parma 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.947 / def 0.905 | Parma attack 0.988 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Perugia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Parma xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Parma kick off?
Perugia vs Parma kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Parma?
Perugia 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Perugia vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Parma part of?
Perugia vs Parma is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 38% chance of winning, Parma a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Perugia and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Parma?
Record (2 meetings): Perugia 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 0W.
What form are Perugia and Parma in?
Perugia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Parma (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Perugia's attack at 0.95x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
38%
2.64
31%
3.28
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.14
1.01
Parma xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Perugia and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Perugia and 1.01 for Parma, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Perugia come into this having played 39 games, going 13W 16D 10L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Perugia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.28 PPG from 39 outings (11W 17D 11L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Perugia on 1.41 PPG, Parma on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Perugia's home form reads 6W 8D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Perugia are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.28 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Parma in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 13W 16D 10L in their last 39 games (1.41 PPG), while Parma have gone 11W 17D 11L in their last 39 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Parma away?
Perugia's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.37 PPG; Parma away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Perugia or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Parma in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Perugia's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Perugia
2
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Parma have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2023, when Parma 2-0 Perugia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Perugia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 47%, Parma 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 16% for Perugia and 53% for Parma.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Parma in 37%; Perugia have failed to score in 26% of games; Parma in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Perugia's recent matches and 53% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 16% of Perugia's recent games and 53% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Parma tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Parma in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Perugia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia and Parma finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.13 xG and Parma 1.01 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Perugia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.95 / defence 0.91 against Parma attack 0.99 / defence 0.93, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 38% | Draw 31% | Parma 32%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 31%, Parma 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.41 PPG, Parma 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.