Parma 0-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Reggiana at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 2 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Parma — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Parma have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 3 games, Reggiana have recorded 0W 1D 2L — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On current form, Parma have the edge — a 1.97 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.33) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Reggiana in-play and half-time data (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 33% versus Reggiana 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 33% | Reggiana 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.63 xG and Reggiana 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.155 / defence 0.745 | Reggiana attack 0.878 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.080. Parma have a tight defence (rating 0.745), which is pulling Reggiana's projected output down. Data: built from Parma's last 41 games and Reggiana's last 3. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Parma 58% | Draw 27% | Reggiana 15%. Fair-value odds: Parma 1.72 | Draw 3.71 | Reggiana 6.77. The model has a clear lean to Parma (58%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Parma 30% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 67% (last 3 games).
The Poisson model's sample (Parma 41 games, Reggiana 3) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 4 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 58% | Draw 27% | Reggiana 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Parma 1.63 / Reggiana 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.155 / def 0.745 | Reggiana attack 0.878 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Parma (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Reggiana xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Parma vs Reggiana kick off?
Parma vs Reggiana kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Reggiana?
Parma 0 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Parma vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Reggiana part of?
Parma vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 4) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 58% chance of winning, Reggiana a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Parma and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Parma vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Parma's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 41 games and Reggiana's last 3, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
58%
1.72
27%
3.71
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Parma xG
Total xG
2.33
0.71
Reggiana xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
3%
34.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Parma and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Parma and 0.71 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Reggiana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma come into this having played 3 games, going 3W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L across their last five.
Parma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.67 PPG clear of Reggiana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reggiana in 67%.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Reggiana
Early Season
Parma (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Early Season
Reggiana
Early Season
❓ Parma vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 games (3.00 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Parma or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Reggiana in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Parma
2
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Reggiana?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 0, Reggiana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2024: Reggiana 1-1 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 33%, Reggiana 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Parma) and 67% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Reggiana in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Reggiana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Parma's recent matches and 67% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Parma and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Parma's recent games and 67% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Reggiana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Parma's recent matches and 100% of Reggiana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Parma's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 4, as Parma and Reggiana drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.63 xG and Reggiana 0.71 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Parma fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.16 / defence 0.74 against Reggiana attack 0.88 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Parma 58% | Draw 27% | Reggiana 15%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 33%, Reggiana 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Reggiana's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Parma managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Reggiana managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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