Parma 2-0 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 21 as Parma welcome Perugia to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Parma have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Parma are significantly better at Stadio Ennio Tardini than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Perugia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Perugia have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Parma) versus 1.30 (Perugia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Parma, 1 for Perugia and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Perugia in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 52% versus Perugia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 43% | Perugia 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.19 xG and Perugia 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.023 / defence 1.032 | Perugia attack 0.990 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.057. Data: 58 Parma games / 58 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 38% | Draw 30% | Perugia 32%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Perugia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Parma 50% | Perugia 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 38% | Draw 30% | Perugia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Parma 1.19 / Perugia 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.023 / def 1.032 | Perugia attack 0.990 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Parma (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Perugia xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Perugia kick off?
Parma vs Perugia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Perugia?
Parma 2 - 0 Perugia.
Where is Parma vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Perugia part of?
Parma vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 38% chance of winning, Perugia a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Parma and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Perugia?
Record (3 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 2 | Perugia 1W.
What form are Parma and Perugia in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Perugia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Parma's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Perugia's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
38%
2.66
30%
3.32
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Parma xG
Total xG
2.27
1.08
Perugia xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Parma and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Parma and 1.08 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma come into this having played 58 games, going 18W 22D 18L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Perugia sit at 1.29 PPG from 58 outings (18W 21D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.31 PPG, Perugia on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Parma's home form reads 10W 10D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Perugia have taken 1.28 points per game from 29 outings (9W 10D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.03 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Perugia in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 18W 22D 18L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while Perugia have gone 18W 21D 19L in their last 58 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Perugia away?
Parma's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.38 PPG; Perugia away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Parma or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Perugia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Perugia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma's record when hosting Perugia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Perugia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2023, when Parma 2-0 Perugia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 55%, Perugia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Parma) and 41% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Perugia in 31%; Perugia in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Parma's recent matches and 52% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Parma's recent games and 41% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Perugia tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Perugia in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Perugia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Perugia 2-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.19 xG and Perugia 1.08 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Perugia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Perugia attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 38% | Draw 30% | Perugia 32%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 43%, Perugia 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Perugia's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.31 PPG, Perugia 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.