Parma 1-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ennio Tardini plays host to Parma versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 26 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Parma's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's home record at Stadio Ennio Tardini: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Modena (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Modena have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Parma's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Modena's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Parma — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Modena — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 46% versus Modena 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 46% | Modena 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.87 xG and Modena 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.235 / defence 0.947 | Modena attack 0.810 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.097. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Parma games / 13 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 60% | Draw 25% | Modena 15%. Fair-value odds: Parma 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Modena 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Parma (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Parma 60% | Modena 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 60% | Draw 25% | Modena 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG Parma 1.87 / Modena 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.235 / def 0.947 | Modena attack 0.810 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Parma (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Modena xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Modena kick off?
Parma vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 November 2022 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Modena?
Parma 1 - 2 Modena.
Where is Parma vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Modena part of?
Parma vs Modena is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 60% chance of winning, Modena a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Parma and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Parma and Modena in?
Parma (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Parma's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.81x) against Parma's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
60%
1.66
25%
4.04
15%
6.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Parma xG
Total xG
2.71
0.84
Modena xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
6.66
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
2%
43.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Parma and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Parma and 0.84 for Modena, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Modena?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Parma have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 6W 4D 3L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena's form line: 4W 2D 7L from 13 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Modena.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Parma have posted 2.50 PPG from 6 outings (5W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Parma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Modena have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Modena's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Parma are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.31 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Modena in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 6W 4D 3L in their last 13 games (1.69 PPG), while Modena have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Modena away?
Parma's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 2.50 PPG; Modena away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Parma or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Modena in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 3-0 on 27 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Parma
2
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Modena?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 0, Modena have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Modena 3-0 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 50%, Modena 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Parma) and 50% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Modena in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Parma's recent matches and 50% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Parma's recent games and 50% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Modena tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Modena in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Modena defy the odds to beat Parma 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Parma 1-2 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.87 xG and Modena 0.84 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Parma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Modena outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.24 / defence 0.95 against Modena attack 0.81 / defence 1.22, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 60% | Draw 25% | Modena 15%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Modena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 46%, Modena 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Modena winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Parma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.