Parma 1-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ennio Tardini plays host to Parma versus Modena in Serie B (matchday 14). Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Parma's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Parma's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Modena (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Modena have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Parma's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Modena's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Modena edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2023, ended Parma 1–1 Modena — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Parma — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Modena — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 47% versus Modena 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 43% | Modena 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.18 xG and Modena 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.196 / defence 0.728 | Modena attack 0.940 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.190. Parma have a tight defence (rating 0.728), which is pulling Modena's projected output down. Data: built from Parma's last 51 games and Modena's last 51.
Result probabilities: Parma 43% | Draw 33% | Modena 24%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.32 | Draw 3.05 | Modena 4.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Parma 40% (last 10 home games) | Modena 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, matchday 14 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 43% | Draw 33% | Modena 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Parma 1.18 / Modena 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.196 / def 0.728 | Modena attack 0.940 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Parma (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Modena xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Modena FAQs
What time does Parma vs Modena kick off?
Parma vs Modena kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Modena?
Parma 1 - 1 Modena.
Where is Parma vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Modena part of?
Parma vs Modena is a Serie B fixture (matchday 14) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 43% chance of winning, Modena a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Parma and Modena will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Parma vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Parma's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.94x) against Parma's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 51 games and Modena's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
43%
2.32
33%
3.05
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Parma xG
Total xG
1.99
0.81
Modena xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
7%
13.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 11.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Modena Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Parma and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Parma and 0.81 for Modena, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Parma have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 26W 11D 14L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Modena's form line: 19W 13D 19L from 51 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Parma against 1.37 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.96 PPG from their last 25 home games (15W 4D 6L).
On the road, Modena have gone 9W 4D 12L from their last 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Parma are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.18 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Modena
Blended
Parma (Home) vs Modena (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Parma vs Modena Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Modena in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 26W 11D 14L in their last 51 games (1.75 PPG), while Modena have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Modena away?
Parma's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.96 PPG; Modena away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Parma or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Modena in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won Modena 3-0 Parma on 27 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Parma
2
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Modena H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Modena?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 0, Modena have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Modena last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2024: Modena 3-0 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 40%, Modena 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Parma) and 56% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Parma have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Modena Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Modena matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Parma's recent matches and 60% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Parma and Modena matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Parma's recent games and 56% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Modena matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Parma's recent matches and 68% of Modena's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Modena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma and Modena finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.18 xG and Modena 0.81 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.20 / defence 0.73 against Modena attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 43% | Draw 33% | Modena 24%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 43%, Modena 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.75 PPG, Modena 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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