Parma 0-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Cagliari at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 June 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cagliari have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cagliari's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Parma at 2.00 PPG versus Cagliari's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Parma's 30% rate and Cagliari's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Parma, 1 for Cagliari and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2023, ended 2–3 with Cagliari winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 49% versus Cagliari 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 40% | Cagliari 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.05 xG and Cagliari 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.059 / defence 0.833 | Cagliari attack 1.120 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.063. Data: 76 Parma games / 38 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 35% | Draw 34% | Cagliari 31%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Cagliari 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 30% | Cagliari 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 35% | Draw 34% | Cagliari 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Parma 1.05 / Cagliari 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.059 / def 0.833 | Cagliari attack 1.120 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Parma (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Cagliari xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Cagliari kick off?
Parma vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Cagliari?
Parma 0 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Parma vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Cagliari part of?
Parma vs Cagliari is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 35% chance of winning, Cagliari a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Parma and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cagliari?
Record (3 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 1 | Cagliari 1W.
What form are Parma and Cagliari in?
Parma (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Cagliari (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Parma's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
35%
2.88
34%
2.96
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Parma xG
Total xG
2.04
0.99
Cagliari xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
11%
9.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Parma and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Parma and 0.99 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma's recent record stands at 28W 26D 23L from 77 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 23W 26D 28L across 77 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.43 PPG, Cagliari on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Parma have managed 16W 11D 11L from 38 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 7W 15D 16L across 38 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.13 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 77 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 28W 26D 23L in their last 77 games (1.43 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 23W 26D 28L in their last 77 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Cagliari away?
Parma's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.55 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Parma or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cagliari in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Parma's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Parma
3
Draws
4
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Cagliari have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Parma 1-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 50%, Cagliari 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Parma) and 42% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Parma have failed to score in 26% of games; Cagliari in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Parma's recent matches and 45% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Parma's recent games and 42% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Cagliari tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Parma's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, as Parma and Cagliari drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.05 xG and Cagliari 0.99 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Parma fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cagliari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.06 / defence 0.83 against Cagliari attack 1.12 / defence 0.81, drawn from 76/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 35% | Draw 34% | Cagliari 31%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 40%, Cagliari 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cagliari's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.43 PPG, Cagliari 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.