Palermo 3-0 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Virtus Entella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palermo host Virtus Entella at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Palermo — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palermo have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Renzo Barbera — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Virtus Entella have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Virtus Entella's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Palermo have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Palermo have won 0, Virtus Entella 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Virtus Entella trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 42% versus Virtus Entella 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Palermo 42% | Virtus Entella 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.87 xG and Virtus Entella 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.222 / defence 0.841 | Virtus Entella attack 0.699 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.060. Data: 62 Palermo games / 24 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 67% | Draw 22% | Virtus Entella 11%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.49 | Draw 4.55 | Virtus Entella 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 20% | Virtus Entella 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 67% | Draw 22% | Virtus Entella 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 40% | xG Palermo 1.87 / Virtus Entella 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.222 / def 0.841 | Virtus Entella attack 0.699 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Palermo (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Virtus Entella xG
40%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Palermo vs Virtus Entella kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Virtus Entella?
Palermo 3 - 0 Virtus Entella.
Where is Palermo vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Virtus Entella part of?
Palermo vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 67% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Palermo and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Virtus Entella?
Record (1 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 1 | Virtus Entella 0W.
What form are Palermo and Virtus Entella in?
Palermo (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Virtus Entella (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palermo's attack rating (1.22) and Virtus Entella's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Virtus Entella's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
67%
1.50
22%
4.50
11%
9.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.50
0.62
Virtus Entella xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
9.07
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
36%
2.79
2%
59.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Palermo and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Palermo and 0.62 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Virtus Entella?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palermo come into this having played 24 games, going 12W 9D 3L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Virtus Entella sit at 1.04 PPG from 24 outings (5W 10D 9L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Virtus Entella — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Palermo's home form reads 8W 3D 1L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Virtus Entella have taken 0.33 points per game from 12 outings (0W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.96 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Virtus Entella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 12W 9D 3L in their last 24 games (1.88 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 5W 10D 9L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Virtus Entella away?
Palermo's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 2.25 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Palermo or Virtus Entella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Virtus Entella in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Virtus Entella runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Palermo
1
Draws
0
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Virtus Entella?
From 2 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Virtus Entella have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Palermo 3-0 Virtus Entella.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Virtus Entella?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 25%, Virtus Entella 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Palermo) and 33% (Virtus Entella).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Virtus Entella in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Palermo's recent matches and 50% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Palermo's recent games and 33% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palermo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Virtus Entella.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Virtus Entella 3-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.87 xG and Virtus Entella 0.62 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.22 / defence 0.84 against Virtus Entella attack 0.70 / defence 1.20, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 67% | Draw 22% | Virtus Entella 11%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 42%, Virtus Entella 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Virtus Entella's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.