Palermo 2-1 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Spal travel to Stadio Renzo Barbera to take on Palermo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Palermo's home record at Stadio Renzo Barbera: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spal have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Spal's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palermo 1.00 PPG, Spal 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Palermo have won 0, Spal 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Spal trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 54% versus Spal 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Palermo 37% | Spal 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.13 xG and Spal 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.933 / defence 0.983 | Spal attack 0.836 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.027. Data: 35 Palermo games / 73 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 40% | Draw 35% | Spal 25%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Spal 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 50% | Spal 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 40% | Draw 35% | Spal 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Palermo 1.13 / Spal 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.933 / def 0.983 | Spal attack 0.836 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Palermo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Spal xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Spal kick off?
Palermo vs Spal kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Spal?
Palermo 2 - 1 Spal.
Where is Palermo vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Spal part of?
Palermo vs Spal is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 40% chance of winning, Spal a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Palermo and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Spal?
Record (1 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 1 | Spal 0W.
What form are Palermo and Spal in?
Palermo (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palermo's attack rating (0.93) and Spal's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
40%
2.49
35%
2.90
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Palermo xG
Total xG
1.97
0.84
Spal xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Palermo and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Palermo and 0.84 for Spal, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 10W 15D 10L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Spal's form line: 7W 14D 14L from 35 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.29 PPG, Spal on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.65 PPG from 17 outings (7W 7D 3L).
On the road, Spal have gone 3W 7D 7L from 17 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.09 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Current Season
Spal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Spal in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 10W 15D 10L in their last 35 games (1.29 PPG), while Spal have gone 7W 14D 14L in their last 35 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Spal away?
Palermo's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.65 PPG; Spal away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Palermo
1
Draws
0
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Spal?
From 2 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Spal have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Palermo 2-1 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Spal?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Spal see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 41%, Spal 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Palermo and 35% for Spal.
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Spal in 35%; Palermo have failed to score in 35% of games; Spal in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Palermo's recent matches and 35% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Palermo's recent games and 35% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Spal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Spal 2-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.13 xG and Spal 0.84 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Spal attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 40% | Draw 35% | Spal 25%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 37%, Spal 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Spal's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.29 PPG, Spal 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.