Palermo 0-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Palermo and Salernitana meet at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Palermo (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo at Stadio Renzo Barbera this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Renzo Barbera this season.
Salernitana's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Salernitana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Salernitana away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Palermo against 1.00 for Salernitana. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 56% versus Salernitana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 53% | Salernitana 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.22 xG and Salernitana 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.866 / defence 0.940 | Salernitana attack 0.711 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.114. Data: 45 Palermo games / 7 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 46% | Draw 32% | Salernitana 21%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Salernitana 4.76. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 50% | Salernitana 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 46% | Draw 32% | Salernitana 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Palermo 1.22 / Salernitana 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.866 / def 0.940 | Salernitana attack 0.711 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Palermo (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Salernitana xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Salernitana kick off?
Palermo vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Salernitana?
Palermo 0 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Palermo vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Salernitana part of?
Palermo vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 46% chance of winning, Salernitana a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Palermo and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Salernitana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palermo and Salernitana in?
Palermo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Salernitana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Palermo vs Salernitana?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Palermo's attack rating (0.87) and Salernitana's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.71x) against Palermo's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
46%
2.17
32%
3.08
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Palermo xG
Total xG
1.96
0.74
Salernitana xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
6%
15.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Palermo and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Palermo and 0.74 for Salernitana, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palermo's recent record stands at 17W 12D 16L from 45 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Salernitana, meanwhile, have gone 4W 13D 28L across 45 games — 0.56 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Salernitana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palermo by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Palermo have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salernitana's away record stands at 1W 7D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palermo are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.91 scored and 2.02 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Salernitana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 17W 12D 16L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 4W 13D 28L in their last 45 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Salernitana away?
Palermo's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.36 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Palermo
0
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Salernitana?
From 2 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Salernitana have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Salernitana 1-2 Palermo.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 54%, Salernitana 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Palermo and 59% for Salernitana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palermo have failed to score in 27% of games; Salernitana in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Palermo's recent matches and 46% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Palermo's matches and 59% of Salernitana's.
Do Palermo and Salernitana tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Palermo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Palermo 0-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.22 xG and Salernitana 0.74 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Palermo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Salernitana attack 0.71 / defence 1.08, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 46% | Draw 32% | Salernitana 21%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Salernitana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 53%, Salernitana 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Salernitana's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.