Palermo 2-2 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Palermo at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Juve Stabia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 31 as Palermo welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Renzo Barbera. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Palermo's home record at Stadio Renzo Barbera: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Juve Stabia — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Juve Stabia have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Palermo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Palermo, 2 for Juve Stabia and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Juve Stabia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia trading profile (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 49% versus Juve Stabia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 48% | Juve Stabia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.82 xG and Juve Stabia 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.334 / defence 0.749 | Juve Stabia attack 0.767 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.118. Palermo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Palermo's defence rating of 0.749 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Palermo games / 68 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 65% | Draw 24% | Juve Stabia 12%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.54 | Draw 4.17 | Juve Stabia 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 20% | Juve Stabia 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 65% | Draw 24% | Juve Stabia 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 41% | xG Palermo 1.82 / Juve Stabia 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.334 / def 0.749 | Juve Stabia attack 0.767 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Palermo (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Juve Stabia xG
41%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Palermo vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Juve Stabia?
Palermo 2 - 2 Juve Stabia.
Where is Palermo vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Juve Stabia part of?
Palermo vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 65% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Palermo and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Juve Stabia?
Record (4 meetings): Palermo 2W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 2W.
What form are Palermo and Juve Stabia in?
Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.33x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
65%
1.54
24%
4.25
12%
8.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.47
0.64
Juve Stabia xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
8.64
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
34%
2.93
2%
53.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Palermo and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Palermo and 0.64 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Juve Stabia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 30W 19D 20L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Juve Stabia's form line: 24W 26D 19L from 69 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.58 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.94 PPG from 33 outings (19W 7D 7L).
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 6W 14D 13L from 33 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.09 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Current Season
Juve Stabia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 30W 19D 20L in their last 69 games (1.58 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 24W 26D 19L in their last 69 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Juve Stabia away?
Palermo's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.94 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Palermo or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Juve Stabia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palermo's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Palermo
1
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Juve Stabia?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 3, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Palermo 1-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Juve Stabia?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 36%, Juve Stabia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Palermo) and 48% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Juve Stabia in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Palermo's recent matches and 54% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Palermo's recent games and 48% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 31, as Palermo and Juve Stabia drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.82 xG and Juve Stabia 0.64 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Juve Stabia outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.33 / defence 0.75 against Juve Stabia attack 0.77 / defence 1.03, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 65% | Draw 24% | Juve Stabia 12%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 48%, Juve Stabia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.58 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Palermo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.