Palermo 1-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bari make the trip to Stadio Renzo Barbera to face Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 20 January 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's home record at Stadio Renzo Barbera: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bari (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Palermo, 0 for Bari and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 40% versus Bari 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 35% | Bari 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 0.80 xG and Bari 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.817 / defence 0.991 | Bari attack 0.986 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.067. Data: 20 Palermo games / 20 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 26% | Draw 34% | Bari 40%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Bari 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 30% | Bari 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Friday 20 Jan 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 26% | Draw 34% | Bari 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Palermo 0.80 / Bari 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.817 / def 0.991 | Bari attack 0.986 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Bari (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bari xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Bari kick off?
Palermo vs Bari kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 20 January 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Bari?
Palermo 1 - 0 Bari.
Where is Palermo vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Bari part of?
Palermo vs Bari is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 26% chance of winning, Bari a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Palermo and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Bari?
Record (1 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 1 | Bari 0W.
What form are Palermo and Bari in?
Palermo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Bari (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Palermo's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.99x) against Palermo's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
26%
3.82
34%
2.92
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Palermo xG
Total xG
1.84
1.04
Bari xG
3.82
26%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
18%
5.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 16.6 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Palermo and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Palermo and 1.04 for Bari, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 6W 7D 7L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari's form line: 8W 9D 3L from 20 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Palermo against 1.65 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
On the road, Bari have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palermo are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.70 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Bari in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Bari in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Bari have gone 8W 9D 3L in their last 20 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.50 PPG; Bari away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Palermo or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bari in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Palermo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won 3-0 on 2 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Palermo
2
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Bari?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 5, Bari have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Bari 0-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Bari?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palermo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 30%, Bari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Palermo and 40% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bari in 40%; Palermo have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Palermo's recent matches and 50% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Palermo's recent games and 40% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Bari tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Bari in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Bari 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Bari 1-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 0.80 xG and Bari 1.04 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.82 / defence 0.99 against Bari attack 0.99 / defence 0.84, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 26% | Draw 34% | Bari 40%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 35%, Bari 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bari's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.25 PPG, Bari 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.