Padova vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Padova take on Benevento.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Stadio Euganeo to face Padova in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Padova's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Euganeo, Padova have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Benevento have collected 1.57 PPG across 7 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Padova against 1.57 for Benevento. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Padova half-time and goal-timing data (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 57% versus Benevento 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 43% | Benevento 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.02 xG and Benevento 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.791 / defence 1.051 | Benevento attack 0.748 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Padova's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Padova games / 7 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 34% | Draw 34% | Benevento 32%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Benevento 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Padova 40% | Benevento 57%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 34% | Draw 34% | Benevento 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Padova 1.02 / Benevento 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.791 / def 1.051 | Benevento attack 0.748 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Padova xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Benevento xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Benevento kick off?
Padova vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Stadio Euganeo.
Where is Padova vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Benevento part of?
Padova vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 34% chance of winning, Benevento a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Padova and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Padova and Benevento in?
Padova (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Benevento (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Padova's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.75x) against Padova's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.97
34%
2.92
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Padova xG
Total xG
2.01
0.99
Benevento xG
2.97
34%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Padova and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Padova and 0.99 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Padova have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 1D 4L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento's form line: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Benevento are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Padova.
Attack vs Defence
Padova are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Benevento in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 57%, Benevento 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Padova) and 43% (Benevento).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Padova's games and 57% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Padova's recent games and 43% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Benevento tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Benevento in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.