Cosenza 0-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cosenza at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cosenza face Spezia.

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Full Analysis

Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Spezia in Serie B (matchday 3). Kick-off: Wednesday 28 August 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Cosenza have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Cosenza have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Spezia (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Spezia have gone 1W 7D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Cosenza, 1.70 for Spezia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Cosenza, 0 for Spezia and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2024, ended Cosenza 2–2 Spezia — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 52% versus Spezia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 42% | Spezia 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.44 xG and Spezia 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.022 / defence 0.933 | Spezia attack 1.050 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.127. Data: built from Cosenza's last 40 games and Spezia's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Cosenza 44% | Draw 28% | Spezia 28%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.28 | Draw 3.54 | Spezia 3.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cosenza 70% (last 10 home games) | Spezia 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Cosenza 40 games, Spezia 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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