Cosenza 3-1 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Pordenone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Pordenone at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 25 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cosenza — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Cosenza have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Pordenone have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pordenone's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cosenza at 0.80 PPG versus Pordenone's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cosenza have won 0, Pordenone 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Pordenone in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 54% versus Pordenone 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 43% | Pordenone 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.27 xG and Pordenone 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.824 / defence 1.360 | Pordenone attack 0.544 / defence 1.472. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.073. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.472 — this is suppressing Cosenza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Cosenza games / 35 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 45% | Draw 34% | Pordenone 21%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.22 | Draw 2.94 | Pordenone 4.76. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 50% | Pordenone 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 45% | Draw 34% | Pordenone 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Cosenza 1.27 / Pordenone 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.824 / def 1.360 | Pordenone attack 0.544 / def 1.472 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Pordenone xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Pordenone kick off?
Cosenza vs Pordenone kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Pordenone?
Cosenza 3 - 1 Pordenone.
Where is Cosenza vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Pordenone part of?
Cosenza vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 45% chance of winning, Pordenone a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cosenza and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Pordenone?
Record (1 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 1 | Pordenone 0W.
What form are Cosenza and Pordenone in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Pordenone (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.82) and Pordenone's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pordenone's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.5%), 0-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
45%
2.21
34%
2.98
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.06
0.79
Pordenone xG
2.21
45%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
6%
16.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.79 for Pordenone, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Pordenone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Cosenza have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 6W 10D 19L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Pordenone's form line: 3W 8D 24L from 35 games, 0.49 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 0.80 PPG, Pordenone on 0.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pordenone have gone 1W 2D 14L from 17 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.71 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Pordenone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 6W 10D 19L in their last 35 games (0.80 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 3W 8D 24L in their last 35 (0.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Pordenone away?
Cosenza's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.24 PPG; Pordenone away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Pordenone runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cosenza
1
Draws
0
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Pordenone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2022, when Cosenza 3-1 Pordenone.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Pordenone?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Pordenone see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 47%, Pordenone 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Cosenza) and 41% (Pordenone).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 35% of games; Pordenone in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Pordenone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Cosenza's recent matches and 41% of Pordenone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Cosenza's recent games and 41% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Pordenone tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Pordenone in 41% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Pordenone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Pordenone 3-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.27 xG and Pordenone 0.79 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.82 / defence 1.36 against Pordenone attack 0.54 / defence 1.47, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 45% | Draw 34% | Pordenone 21%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 43%, Pordenone 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Pordenone's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 0.80 PPG, Pordenone 0.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Pordenone (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.