Cosenza 1-2 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Perugia at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Perugia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Perugia travel to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to take on Cosenza. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 15 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cosenza — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Perugia stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Perugia — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cosenza have won 0, Perugia 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Perugia in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 50% versus Perugia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 32% | Perugia 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 0.74 xG and Perugia 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.735 / defence 1.175 | Perugia attack 0.890 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.133. Cosenza's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Cosenza games / 22 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 20% | Draw 37% | Perugia 43%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 5.00 | Draw 2.70 | Perugia 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Perugia at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 30% | Perugia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 20% | Draw 37% | Perugia 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Cosenza 0.74 / Perugia 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.735 / def 1.175 | Perugia attack 0.890 / def 1.038 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Perugia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Perugia xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Perugia kick off?
Cosenza vs Perugia kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 15 February 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Perugia?
Cosenza 1 - 2 Perugia.
Where is Cosenza vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Perugia part of?
Cosenza vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 20% chance of winning, Perugia a 43% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cosenza and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Perugia?
Record (1 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 1 | Perugia 0W.
What form are Cosenza and Perugia in?
Cosenza (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Perugia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.73) and Perugia's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
20%
5.08
37%
2.70
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.92
1.19
Perugia xG
5.08
20%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
6%
16.62
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 17.3 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.19 for Perugia, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza come into this having played 22 games, going 4W 7D 11L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Perugia sit at 1.55 PPG from 22 outings (8W 10D 4L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Cosenza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cosenza's home form reads 4W 2D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Perugia have taken 1.64 points per game from 11 outings (4W 6D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.14 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Perugia in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 4W 7D 11L in their last 22 games (0.86 PPG), while Perugia have gone 8W 10D 4L in their last 22 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Perugia away?
Perugia's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.27 PPG; Perugia away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Perugia in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cosenza's record when hosting Perugia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cosenza
3
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 0, Perugia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Perugia 0-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Perugia?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 36%, Perugia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Cosenza and 36% for Perugia.
On the defensive side: Perugia in 54%; Cosenza have failed to score in 46% of games; Perugia in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cosenza's recent matches and 46% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Cosenza's recent games and 36% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Perugia tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Perugia in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Perugia edge out Cosenza 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Cosenza 1-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.74 xG and Perugia 1.19 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Perugia outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.73 / defence 1.18 against Perugia attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 20% | Draw 37% | Perugia 43%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 32%, Perugia 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Perugia's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Perugia arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.