Cosenza 0-0 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cosenza at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Cittadella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cosenza welcome Cittadella to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cosenza have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cosenza's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cittadella stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Cittadella have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Cosenza carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Cosenza, 1 for Cittadella and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Cosenza 0–2 Cittadella — a Cittadella win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cosenza trading profile (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cittadella trading profile (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 50% versus Cittadella 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 36% | Cittadella 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.52 xG and Cittadella 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.974 / defence 1.117 | Cittadella attack 0.767 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.243. Cittadella's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cosenza's projected output up. Cittadella's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Cosenza's last 66 games and Cittadella's last 66.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 46% | Draw 29% | Cittadella 25%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.16 | Draw 3.47 | Cittadella 4.01. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cosenza 60% (last 10 home games) | Cittadella 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 46% | Draw 29% | Cittadella 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Cosenza 1.52 / Cittadella 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.974 / def 1.117 | Cittadella attack 0.767 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Cittadella xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cosenza vs Cittadella FAQs
What time does Cosenza vs Cittadella kick off?
Cosenza vs Cittadella kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Cosenza 0 - 0 Cittadella.
Where is Cosenza vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Cittadella part of?
Cosenza vs Cittadella is a Serie B fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 46% chance of winning, Cittadella a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cosenza and Cittadella will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cosenza vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 0.97x the league average against Cittadella's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cosenza's last 66 games and Cittadella's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.47
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.59
1.06
Cittadella xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
5%
18.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cosenza vs Cittadella Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.06 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza's recent record stands at 16W 23D 27L from 66 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Cittadella, meanwhile, have gone 19W 22D 25L across 66 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.08 PPG, Cittadella on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 11W 11D 10L from their last 32 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cittadella's away record stands at 7W 12D 13L across their last 32 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.02 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Cittadella
Current Season
Cosenza (Home) vs Cittadella (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cosenza
Current Season
Cittadella
Current Season
❓ Cosenza vs Cittadella Form FAQs
What form are Cosenza and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 16W 23D 27L in their last 66 games (1.08 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 19W 22D 25L in their last 66 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Cittadella away?
Cosenza's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.38 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cosenza's record when hosting Cittadella specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cosenza
5
Draws
2
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Cosenza vs Cittadella H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Cittadella?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cosenza have won 1, Cittadella have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Cittadella last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2025: Cosenza 0-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 59%, Cittadella 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cosenza) and 34% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cittadella in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cosenza vs Cittadella Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cosenza and Cittadella matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Cosenza's games and 53% of Cittadella's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cosenza and Cittadella matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cosenza's recent games and 34% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Cittadella matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Cosenza's recent matches and 72% of Cittadella's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cosenza's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza and Cittadella finished level at 0-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.52 xG and Cittadella 1.06 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cosenza fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cittadella landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.97 / defence 1.12 against Cittadella attack 0.77 / defence 1.24, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 46% | Draw 29% | Cittadella 25%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 36%, Cittadella 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cittadella's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.08 PPG, Cittadella 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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