Monza 1-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Monza welcome Sudtirol to Brianteo. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Monza — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Brianteo this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's away record: 1W 7D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Monza carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Monza in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 50% versus Sudtirol 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 46% | Sudtirol 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.16 xG and Sudtirol 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.921 / defence 0.815 | Sudtirol attack 0.840 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.085. Data: 14 Monza games / 52 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 44% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 22%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Sudtirol 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Monza 30% | Sudtirol 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Brianteo • Kick-off: Monday 8 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 44% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Monza 1.16 / Sudtirol 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.921 / def 0.815 | Sudtirol attack 0.840 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Monza (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Sudtirol xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Sudtirol kick off?
Monza vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 8 December 2025 at Brianteo.
What was the final score in Monza vs Sudtirol?
Monza 1 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Monza vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Brianteo.
What competition is Monza vs Sudtirol part of?
Monza vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 44% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Monza and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monza and Sudtirol in?
Monza (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.92x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
44%
2.25
33%
2.99
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Monza xG
Total xG
1.91
0.74
Sudtirol xG
2.25
44%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Monza and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Monza and 0.74 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Monza have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 12W 12D 28L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol's form line: 14W 17D 21L from 52 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monza on 0.92 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Monza have posted 1.00 PPG from 26 outings (7W 5D 14L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 6W 9D 11L from 26 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Monza are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.23 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 12W 12D 28L in their last 52 games (0.92 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 14W 17D 21L in their last 52 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.00 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Monza
2
Draws
0
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Sudtirol?
From 2 meetings on record, Monza have won 0, Sudtirol have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Monza.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 50%, Sudtirol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Monza) and 50% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Monza have failed to score in 35% of games; Sudtirol in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Monza's recent matches and 50% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Monza's recent games and 50% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza and Sudtirol finished level at 1-1 at Brianteo, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.16 xG and Sudtirol 0.74 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.92 / defence 0.81 against Sudtirol attack 0.84 / defence 0.92, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 44% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 22%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 46%, Sudtirol 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 0.92 PPG, Sudtirol 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.