Modena 3-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Spezia meet at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Modena (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Modena at Stadio Alberto Braglia this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Braglia. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Alberto Braglia this season.
Spezia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Spezia have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Modena 1W, Spezia 1W, 3D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with Modena winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 55% versus Spezia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 48% | Spezia 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.14 xG and Spezia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.833 / defence 0.935 | Spezia attack 0.959 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.127. Data: 67 Modena games / 67 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 38% | Draw 31% | Spezia 31%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Spezia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Spezia 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 38% | Draw 31% | Spezia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Modena 1.14 / Spezia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.833 / def 0.935 | Spezia attack 0.959 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Modena (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Spezia xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Spezia kick off?
Modena vs Spezia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Spezia?
Modena 3 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Modena vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Spezia part of?
Modena vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 38% chance of winning, Spezia a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Modena and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Spezia?
Record (5 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 3 | Spezia 1W.
What form are Modena and Spezia in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Spezia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Modena's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.96x) against Modena's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
38%
2.63
31%
3.25
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Modena xG
Total xG
2.15
1.01
Spezia xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Modena and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Modena and 1.01 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Modena have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 22W 23D 22L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Spezia's form line: 24W 22D 21L from 67 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Modena against 1.40 for Spezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.36 PPG from 33 outings (11W 12D 10L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 9W 14D 10L from 33 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.31 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Spezia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 22W 23D 22L in their last 67 games (1.33 PPG), while Spezia have gone 24W 22D 21L in their last 67 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Spezia away?
Modena's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.36 PPG; Spezia away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Modena or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Spezia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Modena have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 3-0 on 13 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Modena
3
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Spezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Spezia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Modena 3-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Spezia?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 61%, Spezia 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Modena) and 33% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Spezia in 39%; Spezia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Modena's recent matches and 42% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Modena's recent games and 33% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Spezia tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Spezia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Modena run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Spezia 3-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.14 xG and Spezia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spezia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.83 / defence 0.94 against Spezia attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 38% | Draw 31% | Spezia 31%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Spezia 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Spezia's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.33 PPG, Spezia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.