Modena 1-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Spezia meet at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Modena (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena at Stadio Alberto Braglia this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Spezia have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Spezia have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Spezia arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Modena 0W, Spezia 1W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Spezia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 57% versus Spezia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 43% | Spezia 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 0.90 xG and Spezia 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.052 / defence 0.941 | Spezia attack 1.143 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.095. Spezia's defence strength of 0.696 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Modena games / 63 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 27% | Draw 32% | Spezia 41%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Spezia 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Modena 60% | Spezia 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 27% | Draw 32% | Spezia 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Modena 0.90 / Spezia 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.052 / def 0.941 | Spezia attack 1.143 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Spezia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Spezia xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Spezia kick off?
Modena vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Spezia?
Modena 1 - 1 Spezia.
Where is Modena vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Spezia part of?
Modena vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 27% chance of winning, Spezia a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Modena and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Spezia?
Record (3 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 2 | Spezia 1W.
What form are Modena and Spezia in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Spezia (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Modena's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (1.14x) against Modena's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
27%
3.77
32%
3.08
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Modena xG
Total xG
2.07
1.18
Spezia xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
8%
12.22
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.8 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Modena and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Modena and 1.18 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Modena have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 16W 29D 18L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spezia's form line: 22W 27D 14L from 63 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Modena against 1.48 for Spezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.42 PPG from 31 outings (11W 11D 9L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 8W 14D 9L from 31 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.21 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Spezia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 16W 29D 18L in their last 63 games (1.22 PPG), while Spezia have gone 22W 27D 14L in their last 63 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Spezia away?
Modena's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.42 PPG; Spezia away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Modena or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Spezia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Modena have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 3-0 on 13 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Modena
3
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Spezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Spezia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Modena 3-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Spezia?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 52%, Spezia 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Modena) and 42% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Spezia in 39%; Modena have failed to score in 26% of games; Spezia in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Modena's recent matches and 39% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Modena's recent games and 42% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Spezia tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Spezia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Spezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 26, as Modena and Spezia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 0.90 xG and Spezia 1.18 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Spezia attack 1.14 / defence 0.70, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 27% | Draw 32% | Spezia 41%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 43%, Spezia 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.22 PPG, Spezia 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.