Modena vs Sampdoria – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 32 as Modena welcome Sampdoria to Stadio Alberto Braglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sampdoria — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Modena 1.10 PPG, Sampdoria 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sampdoria, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Modena.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Sampdoria winning.
It is worth noting that Sampdoria have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Sampdoria trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 50% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 52% | Sampdoria 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.30 xG and Sampdoria 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.030 / defence 0.966 | Sampdoria attack 0.875 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Modena games / 40 Sampdoria games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Modena 42% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 27%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Sampdoria 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Sampdoria 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 42% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Modena 1.30 / Sampdoria 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.030 / def 0.966 | Sampdoria attack 0.875 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Modena (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Sampdoria xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Sampdoria kick off?
Modena vs Sampdoria is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Sampdoria part of?
Modena vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 42% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Modena and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sampdoria?
Record (6 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 4W.
What form are Modena and Sampdoria in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Modena's attack at 1.03x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.30
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Modena xG
Total xG
2.30
1.00
Sampdoria xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Modena and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Modena and 1.00 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Modena come into this having played 40 games, going 16W 10D 14L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sampdoria sit at 1.12 PPG from 40 outings (11W 12D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.45 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Modena's home form reads 9W 4D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Sampdoria have taken 0.65 points per game from 20 outings (2W 7D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sampdoria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.92 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Modena have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 16W 10D 14L in their last 40 games (1.45 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Sampdoria away?
Modena's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.55 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Modena or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Modena's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Modena
1
Draws
4
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sampdoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Sampdoria have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Modena 1-2 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 55%, Sampdoria 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Modena) and 40% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sampdoria in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Modena's games and 60% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Modena's recent games and 40% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.