Modena 1-2 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Modena at 47%, yet in-form Sampdoria provide a compelling counter-argument — this Modena vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 23 as Modena welcome Sampdoria to Stadio Alberto Braglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Braglia. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Modena are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Braglia than their overall form suggests.
Sampdoria — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sampdoria are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Modena, 3 for Sampdoria and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Modena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Sampdoria trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 55% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 47% | Sampdoria 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.24 xG and Sampdoria 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.935 / defence 0.957 | Sampdoria attack 0.758 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.016. Data: 60 Modena games / 60 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 47% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 21%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Sampdoria 4.76. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sampdoria (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Sampdoria 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 47% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Modena 1.24 / Sampdoria 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.935 / def 0.957 | Sampdoria attack 0.758 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Modena (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Sampdoria xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Sampdoria kick off?
Modena vs Sampdoria kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Sampdoria?
Modena 1 - 2 Sampdoria.
Where is Modena vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Sampdoria part of?
Modena vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 47% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Modena and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sampdoria?
Record (5 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 3W.
What form are Modena and Sampdoria in?
Modena (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Modena's attack at 0.94x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
47%
2.11
31%
3.20
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Modena xG
Total xG
1.97
0.74
Sampdoria xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
6%
16.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Modena and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Modena and 0.74 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Modena come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 22D 19L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sampdoria sit at 1.08 PPG from 60 outings (14W 23D 23L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.32 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Modena's home form reads 10W 11D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Sampdoria have taken 0.66 points per game from 29 outings (2W 13D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sampdoria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.98 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 19W 22D 19L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 14W 23D 23L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Sampdoria away?
Modena's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.41 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Modena's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Modena
1
Draws
4
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sampdoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Sampdoria have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Modena 1-2 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Modena at 62%, Sampdoria at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Modena) and 48% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sampdoria in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Modena's games and 69% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Modena's recent games and 48% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sampdoria defy the odds to beat Modena 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Modena 1-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.24 xG and Sampdoria 0.74 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sampdoria outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Sampdoria attack 0.76 / defence 1.03, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 47% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 21%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Sampdoria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 47%, Sampdoria 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.32 PPG, Sampdoria 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.