Mantova 3-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Danilo Martelli to face Mantova in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mantova's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Mantova at Stadio Danilo Martelli this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Monza have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Monza have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mantova lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Monza winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Mantova half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Monza half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 54% versus Monza 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 51% | Monza 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.10 xG and Monza 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.944 / defence 1.151 | Monza attack 1.104 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.084. Data: 74 Mantova games / 36 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 28% | Draw 32% | Monza 41%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Monza 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 50% | Monza 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 28% | Draw 32% | Monza 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Mantova 1.10 / Monza 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.944 / def 1.151 | Monza attack 1.104 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Monza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Monza xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Monza kick off?
Mantova vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Monza?
Mantova 3 - 2 Monza.
Where is Mantova vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Monza part of?
Mantova vs Monza is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 28% chance of winning, Monza a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mantova and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 0 | Monza 1W.
What form are Mantova and Monza in?
Mantova (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Monza (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mantova's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Monza's attack (1.10x) against Mantova's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
28%
3.62
32%
3.16
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.48
1.38
Monza xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
7%
14.36
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Mantova and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Mantova and 1.38 for Monza, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 74 outings, Mantova have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 22W 21D 31L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Monza's form line: 25W 18D 31L from 74 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Mantova against 1.26 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mantova have posted 1.57 PPG from 37 outings (16W 10D 11L).
On the road, Monza have gone 10W 10D 17L from 37 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mantova are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.15 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Monza in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 22W 21D 31L in their last 74 games (1.18 PPG), while Monza have gone 25W 18D 31L in their last 74 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Monza away?
Mantova's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.57 PPG; Monza away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mantova
0
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Monza have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Mantova 3-2 Monza.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Monza see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 51%, Monza 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mantova) and 49% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Monza in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Mantova's recent matches and 49% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mantova's recent games and 49% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Monza tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Monza in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mantova defy the odds to beat Monza 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Monza 3-2 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.10 xG and Monza 1.38 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against Monza attack 1.10 / defence 0.85, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 28% | Draw 32% | Monza 41%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mantova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 51%, Monza 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.18 PPG, Monza 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.49 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.