Lecce 3-3 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lecce at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lecce host Ternana at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 November 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lecce — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare this season: 4W 2D 0L from 6 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ternana have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.17 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Lecce have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Lecce in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ternana in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 46% versus Ternana 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 54% | Ternana 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.88 xG and Ternana 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 1.380 / defence 0.913 | Ternana attack 0.994 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.155. Lecce carry an above-average attack strength of 1.380 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing Lecce's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Lecce games / 13 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 56% | Draw 24% | Ternana 20%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Ternana 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Lecce (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lecce are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 50% | Ternana 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 56% | Draw 24% | Ternana 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Lecce 1.88 / Ternana 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 1.380 / def 0.913 | Ternana attack 0.994 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Lecce (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Ternana xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Ternana kick off?
Lecce vs Ternana kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Ternana?
Lecce 3 - 3 Ternana.
Where is Lecce vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Ternana part of?
Lecce vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 56% chance of winning, Ternana a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lecce and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Ternana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lecce and Ternana in?
Lecce (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Ternana (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lecce's attack at 1.38x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.23
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.92
1.05
Ternana xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
3%
32.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Lecce and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Lecce and 1.05 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Ternana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lecce's recent record stands at 6W 6D 1L from 13 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 6L across 13 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lecce by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ternana heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Lecce are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ternana's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lecce are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.62 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana in 62%.
Defensively: Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Ternana in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 6W 6D 1L in their last 13 games (1.85 PPG), while Ternana have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Ternana away?
Lecce's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 2.33 PPG; Ternana away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Lecce or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Ternana in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lecce and Ternana runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lecce
1
Draws
0
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Ternana?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecce have won 1, Ternana have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2022, when Ternana 1-4 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Ternana?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 50%, Ternana 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Lecce) and 50% (Ternana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecce keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Lecce's games and 67% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lecce vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lecce's matches and 50% of Ternana's.
Do Lecce and Ternana tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ternana in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce and Ternana share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce and Ternana finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.88 xG and Ternana 1.05 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lecce beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ternana outscored their 1.05 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 1.38 / defence 0.91 against Ternana attack 0.99 / defence 1.36, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 56% | Draw 24% | Ternana 20%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 54%, Ternana 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lecce (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.