Juve Stabia vs Empoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Empoli make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juve Stabia have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Romeo Menti this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Empoli's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.20 for Empoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Juve Stabia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Empoli in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Juve Stabia, 0 for Empoli and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Juve Stabia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 58% versus Empoli 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 48% | Empoli 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.63 xG and Empoli 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.010 / defence 0.949 | Empoli attack 0.943 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Juve Stabia games / 40 Empoli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 50% | Draw 27% | Empoli 23%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Empoli 4.35. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 70% | Empoli 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 50% | Draw 27% | Empoli 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Juve Stabia 1.63 / Empoli 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.010 / def 0.949 | Empoli attack 0.943 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Empoli xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Empoli kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Empoli is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Empoli part of?
Juve Stabia vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 50% chance of winning, Empoli a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Juve Stabia and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Empoli?
Record (2 meetings): Juve Stabia 2W | Draws 0 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Empoli in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Empoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (1.01) and Empoli's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.94x) against Juve Stabia's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.74
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.69
1.06
Empoli xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
5%
21.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.06 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juve Stabia come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 16D 11L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.10 PPG from 40 outings (10W 14D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.10 for Empoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Juve Stabia's home form reads 8W 8D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.83 points per game from 18 outings (4W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.23 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Empoli in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 13W 16D 11L in their last 40 games (1.38 PPG), while Empoli have gone 10W 14D 16L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Empoli away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.78 PPG; Empoli away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
0
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Empoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Empoli have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Empoli 1-2 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Empoli?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Empoli see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 56%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Juve Stabia) and 56% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Empoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 50% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 56% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Empoli tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Empoli in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.