Juve Stabia 2-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Juve Stabia face Carrarese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Carrarese's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Carrarese away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Juve Stabia, 0 for Carrarese and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Juve Stabia 0–0 Carrarese — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Carrarese — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 54% versus Carrarese 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 50% | Carrarese 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.27 xG and Carrarese 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.849 / defence 1.107 | Carrarese attack 0.725 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.083. Carrarese's defence rating of 1.230 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Juve Stabia's projected output up. Carrarese's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Juve Stabia's last 22 games and Carrarese's last 22.
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 43% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 23%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.34 | Draw 2.89 | Carrarese 4.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Juve Stabia 50% (last 10 home games) | Carrarese 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 25 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 43% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Juve Stabia 1.27 / Carrarese 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.849 / def 1.107 | Carrarese attack 0.725 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Carrarese xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juve Stabia vs Carrarese FAQs
What time does Juve Stabia vs Carrarese kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Juve Stabia 2 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Carrarese part of?
Juve Stabia vs Carrarese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 43% chance of winning, Carrarese a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Juve Stabia and Carrarese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Juve Stabia vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.72x) against Juve Stabia's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Juve Stabia's last 22 games and Carrarese's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
43%
2.34
35%
2.89
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.14
0.87
Carrarese xG
2.34
43%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
6%
15.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juve Stabia vs Carrarese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.87 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 7W 9D 6L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Carrarese's form line: 7W 6D 9L from 22 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.23 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Juve Stabia have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 10 home games (4W 3D 3L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.86 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
Juve Stabia (Home) vs Carrarese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juve Stabia
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Juve Stabia vs Carrarese Form FAQs
What form are Juve Stabia and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 7W 9D 6L in their last 22 games (1.36 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Carrarese away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.50 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Carrarese in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Juve Stabia and Carrarese, the earliest from November 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Carrarese won Carrarese 3-0 Juve Stabia on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Carrarese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Juve Stabia vs Carrarese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Carrarese?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Juve Stabia have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Carrarese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Juve Stabia 1-1 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 50%, Carrarese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Juve Stabia) and 40% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Carrarese in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juve Stabia vs Carrarese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juve Stabia and Carrarese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 50% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Juve Stabia and Carrarese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 40% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Carrarese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 60% of Carrarese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Carrarese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Carrarese 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.27 xG and Carrarese 0.87 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Carrarese attack 0.72 / defence 1.23, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 43% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 23%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 50%, Carrarese 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Carrarese's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.36 PPG, Carrarese 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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