Juve Stabia 2-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juve Stabia lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Carrarese — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 54% versus Carrarese 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 50% | Carrarese 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.27 xG and Carrarese 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.849 / defence 1.107 | Carrarese attack 0.725 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.083. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Juve Stabia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Juve Stabia games / 22 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 43% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 23%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.33 | Draw 2.86 | Carrarese 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 50% | Carrarese 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 43% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Juve Stabia 1.27 / Carrarese 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.849 / def 1.107 | Carrarese attack 0.725 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Carrarese xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Carrarese kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Juve Stabia 2 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Carrarese part of?
Juve Stabia vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 43% chance of winning, Carrarese a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Juve Stabia and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Carrarese?
Record (1 meetings): Juve Stabia 0W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Carrarese in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Carrarese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.72x) against Juve Stabia's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
43%
2.34
35%
2.89
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.14
0.87
Carrarese xG
2.34
43%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
6%
15.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.87 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 7W 9D 6L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese's form line: 7W 6D 9L from 22 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.23 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Juve Stabia have posted 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.86 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 7W 9D 6L in their last 22 games (1.36 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Carrarese away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.50 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Carrarese in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Carrarese won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Carrarese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Juve Stabia 1-1 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 50%, Carrarese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Juve Stabia) and 40% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Carrarese in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 50% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 40% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Carrarese tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Carrarese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Carrarese 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.27 xG and Carrarese 0.87 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Carrarese attack 0.72 / defence 1.23, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 43% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 23%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 50%, Carrarese 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Carrarese's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.36 PPG, Carrarese 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.