Hellas Verona 2-1 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Marc'Antonio Bentegodi plays host to Hellas Verona versus Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 20 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hellas Verona have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hellas Verona at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vicenza Virtus (all games): 1W 2D 1L across 4 Serie B outings this term — 1.25 points per game. Last five: W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Vicenza Virtus are the stronger side — 0.55 PPG clear of the hosts (1.25 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Vicenza Virtus — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 75% and Vicenza Virtus 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hellas Verona 75% | Vicenza Virtus 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 2.33 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.260 / defence 1.107 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.851 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.133. Hellas Verona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Hellas Verona games / 4 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 65% | Draw 19% | Vicenza Virtus 16%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Vicenza Virtus 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Hellas Verona (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hellas Verona as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vicenza Virtus (1.25 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hellas Verona 20% | Vicenza Virtus 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 65% | Draw 19% | Vicenza Virtus 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 59% | xG Hellas Verona 2.33 / Vicenza Virtus 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.260 / def 1.107 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.851 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Vicenza Virtus xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus?
Hellas Verona 2 - 1 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 65% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hellas Verona and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hellas Verona and Vicenza Virtus in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (1.26) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vicenza Virtus's attack (0.85x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
65%
1.53
19%
5.31
16%
6.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.40
1.07
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
6.34
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
10%
10.28
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
2%
65.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.07 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 1L across 4 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Hellas Verona against 1.25 for Vicenza Virtus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Hellas Verona are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Vicenza Virtus in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
0
Draws
0
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Vicenza Virtus?
From 1 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Hellas Verona 2-1 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Vicenza Virtus?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Hellas Verona, 75% for Vicenza Virtus — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Hellas Verona and 75% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hellas Verona's games and 75% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Hellas Verona's matches and 75% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Hellas Verona and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hellas Verona edge out Vicenza Virtus 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Vicenza Virtus 2-1 at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 2.33 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.07 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.26 / defence 1.11 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.85 / defence 1.36, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 65% | Draw 19% | Vicenza Virtus 16%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 75%, Vicenza Virtus 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 1.00 PPG, Vicenza Virtus 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.