Frosinone 2-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 20 as Frosinone welcome Modena to Stadio Benito Stirpe. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 January 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone at Stadio Benito Stirpe this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Modena have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Frosinone, 0 for Modena and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Frosinone winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Frosinone trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Modena trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 32% versus Modena 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 42% | Modena 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.75 xG and Modena 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.190 / defence 0.668 | Modena attack 1.080 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.096. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Frosinone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Frosinone's defence rating of 0.668 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Frosinone games / 19 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 59% | Draw 26% | Modena 15%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Modena 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 20% | Modena 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 59% | Draw 26% | Modena 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Frosinone 1.75 / Modena 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.190 / def 0.668 | Modena attack 1.080 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Modena xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Modena kick off?
Frosinone vs Modena kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Modena?
Frosinone 2 - 1 Modena.
Where is Frosinone vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Modena part of?
Frosinone vs Modena is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 59% chance of winning, Modena a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Frosinone and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Frosinone 1W | Draws 0 | Modena 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Modena in?
Frosinone (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Modena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Frosinone's attack at 1.19x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.3%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.90
15%
6.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.54
0.79
Modena xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
6.54
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
3%
37.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.79 for Modena, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Modena?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Frosinone's recent record stands at 12W 3D 4L from 19 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 8L across 19 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Frosinone by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Modena heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 7W 2D 0L from 9 games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.05 PPG overall — Frosinone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Modena's away record stands at 4W 1D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Frosinone are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena in 63%.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Modena in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 12W 3D 4L in their last 19 games (2.05 PPG), while Modena have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Modena away?
Frosinone's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.56 PPG; Modena away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Modena in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Frosinone's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Frosinone
3
Draws
0
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 3, Modena have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Modena 1-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Modena?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Frosinone 11% BTTS, Modena 56%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Frosinone) and 56% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 89% of their matches; Modena in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Frosinone's recent matches and 56% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Frosinone's recent games and 56% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Modena tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Modena in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Modena 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Modena 2-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.75 xG and Modena 0.79 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.19 / defence 0.67 against Modena attack 1.08 / defence 1.28, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 59% | Draw 26% | Modena 15%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 42%, Modena 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.