Feralpisalo 3-3 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bari at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feralpisalo vs Bari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Leonardo Garilli plays host to Feralpisalo versus Bari in Serie B (matchday 13). Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Feralpisalo have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
At home, Feralpisalo have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 home games (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Bari (all games): 2W 7D 1L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Bari have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bari arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Feralpisalo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 42% versus Bari 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Feralpisalo 50% | Bari 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 0.66 xG and Bari 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.630 / defence 1.439 | Bari attack 1.022 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.149. Feralpisalo's attack rating of 0.630 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.439 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bari's projected output up. Data: built from Feralpisalo's last 12 games and Bari's last 50.
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 13% | Draw 26% | Bari 61%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 7.80 | Draw 3.78 | Bari 1.65. The model has a clear lean to Bari (61%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Feralpisalo 40% (last 5 home games) | Bari 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 13% | Draw 26% | Bari 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Feralpisalo 0.66 / Bari 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.630 / def 1.439 | Bari attack 1.022 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Bari (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Bari xG
41%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Bari FAQs
What time does Feralpisalo vs Bari kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Bari kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Bari?
Feralpisalo 3 - 3 Bari.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Bari part of?
Feralpisalo vs Bari is a Serie B fixture (matchday 13) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 13% chance of winning, Bari a 61% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Feralpisalo and Bari will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Feralpisalo vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Feralpisalo's attack rating (0.63) and Bari's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (1.02x) against Feralpisalo's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from Feralpisalo's last 12 games and Bari's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.6%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
13%
7.80
26%
3.78
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.35
1.69
Bari xG
7.80
13%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
52%
1.94
Win to Nil
2%
42.23
31%
3.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 16.1 | 13.6 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feralpisalo vs Bari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.69 for Bari, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Bari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Feralpisalo come into this having played 12 games, going 1W 3D 8L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (3W 8D 1L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Bari carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Feralpisalo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Feralpisalo's home form reads 0W 1D 4L across their last 5 home games, a 0.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 5 away games (1W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Feralpisalo are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.00 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari in 67%.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Blended
Bari
Blended
Feralpisalo (Home) vs Bari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feralpisalo
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Feralpisalo vs Bari Form FAQs
What form are Feralpisalo and Bari in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 1W 3D 8L in their last 12 games (0.50 PPG), while Bari have gone 3W 8D 1L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.20 PPG; Bari away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Feralpisalo or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feralpisalo have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Bari in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Feralpisalo and Bari, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Feralpisalo
1
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Feralpisalo vs Bari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Bari?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Feralpisalo have won 0, Bari have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Bari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Bari 1-0 Feralpisalo.
Who has won more matches between Feralpisalo and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 40%, Bari 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Feralpisalo) and 40% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Bari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feralpisalo and Bari matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Feralpisalo's games and 80% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Feralpisalo and Bari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 40% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Bari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 80% of Bari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feralpisalo and Bari share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feralpisalo and Bari finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 0.66 xG and Bari 1.69 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Feralpisalo beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bari outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.63 / defence 1.44 against Bari attack 1.02 / defence 0.96, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 13% | Draw 26% | Bari 61%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 50%, Bari 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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