Cremonese 1-1 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 12 as Cremonese welcome Spal to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 3W 2D 1L this season (6 games, 1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spal have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Spal have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 1.50 PPG versus Spal's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Spal in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 36% versus Spal 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 36% | Spal 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.04 xG and Spal 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.095 / defence 1.011 | Spal attack 0.603 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.141. Data: 11 Cremonese games / 11 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 42% | Draw 34% | Spal 23%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Spal 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Spal's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 33% | Spal 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 42% | Draw 34% | Spal 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Cremonese 1.04 / Spal 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.095 / def 1.011 | Spal attack 0.603 / def 0.970 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Spal xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Spal kick off?
Cremonese vs Spal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Spal?
Cremonese 1 - 1 Spal.
Where is Cremonese vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Spal part of?
Cremonese vs Spal is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 42% chance of winning, Spal a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Cremonese and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Spal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Spal in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Spal (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 1.09x the league average against Spal's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
42%
2.35
34%
2.93
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.74
0.70
Spal xG
2.35
42%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
8%
12.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.8 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.70 for Spal, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 5W 3D 3L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spal's form line: 3W 4D 4L from 11 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spal.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, Spal have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.36 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Spal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Spal in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while Spal have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Spal away?
Cremonese's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.60 PPG; Spal away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Spal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Spal in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Spal runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cremonese
1
Draws
0
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Spal?
From 2 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Spal have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when Spal 0-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Spal?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Cremonese 40% BTTS, Spal 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Cremonese and 20% for Spal.
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Spal in 40%; Spal in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cremonese's recent matches and 20% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Cremonese's recent games and 20% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Spal tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Spal in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Spal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 12, as Cremonese and Spal drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.04 xG and Spal 0.70 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against Spal attack 0.60 / defence 0.97, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 42% | Draw 34% | Spal 23%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 36%, Spal 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Spal's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.