Cremonese 0-3 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Perugia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giovanni Zini plays host to Cremonese versus Perugia in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games (2.25 PPG). Last five: W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Perugia have collected 1.25 PPG across 4 Serie B outings this season: 1W 2D 1L. Last five: W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Perugia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Cremonese's 2.25 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Perugia's 1.25 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Perugia half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 25% versus Perugia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cremonese 50% | Perugia 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.19 xG and Perugia 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.203 / defence 0.865 | Perugia attack 0.642 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.379. Data: 4 Cremonese games / 4 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 44% | Draw 35% | Perugia 21%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.27 | Draw 2.86 | Perugia 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 25% | Perugia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 44% | Draw 35% | Perugia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Cremonese 1.19 / Perugia 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.203 / def 0.865 | Perugia attack 0.642 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Perugia xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Perugia kick off?
Cremonese vs Perugia kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Perugia?
Cremonese 0 - 3 Perugia.
Where is Cremonese vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Perugia part of?
Cremonese vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 44% chance of winning, Perugia a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cremonese and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Perugia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Perugia in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W. Perugia (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cremonese's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Perugia's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.64x) against Cremonese's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
44%
2.30
35%
2.83
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.96
0.77
Perugia xG
2.30
44%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
6%
15.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.77 for Perugia, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Cremonese have picked up 2.25 PPG on a 3W 0D 1L record — W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Perugia's form line: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Perugia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Perugia.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Perugia in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Perugia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Perugia in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while Perugia have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Cremonese or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Perugia in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cremonese
1
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Perugia?
From 2 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Perugia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Perugia 0-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Perugia?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Perugia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 25%, Perugia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 25% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Perugia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Cremonese's recent matches and 50% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 25% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Perugia run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Cremonese 0-3 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.19 xG and Perugia 0.77 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Perugia outscored their 0.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.20 / defence 0.86 against Perugia attack 0.64 / defence 0.88, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 44% | Draw 35% | Perugia 21%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Perugia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 50%, Perugia 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Perugia's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Perugia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cremonese managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Perugia scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.