Cremonese 3-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cremonese at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cremonese face Juve Stabia.

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Fixture Analysis

Cremonese welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B (Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals). Kick-off is Sunday 25 May 2025 at 17:15 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Cremonese have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Cremonese have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Juve Stabia — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Juve Stabia's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Cremonese) versus 1.80 (Juve Stabia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 90% of Cremonese's games and 60% of Juve Stabia's (from Cremonese's last 10 home games and Juve Stabia's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Cremonese have won 1, Juve Stabia 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2025, ended Cremonese 1–2 Juve Stabia — a Juve Stabia win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Cremonese trading profile (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Juve Stabia trading profile (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 65% versus Juve Stabia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 55% | Juve Stabia 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.64 xG and Juve Stabia 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.246 / defence 1.106 | Juve Stabia attack 0.728 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.141. Juve Stabia's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Cremonese's last 76 games and Juve Stabia's last 38.

Result probabilities: Cremonese 53% | Draw 27% | Juve Stabia 20%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 1.89 | Draw 3.66 | Juve Stabia 5.06. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cremonese 90% (last 10 home games) | Juve Stabia 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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