Cremonese 0-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giovanni Zini plays host to Cremonese versus Bari in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cremonese have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bari (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bari have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Cremonese, 1.30 for Bari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 54% versus Bari 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cremonese 46% | Bari 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.85 xG and Bari 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.709 / defence 1.012 | Bari attack 1.111 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.021. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 1 Cremonese games / 39 Bari games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 24% | Draw 36% | Bari 40%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 4.17 | Draw 2.78 | Bari 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Bari 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 24% | Draw 36% | Bari 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Cremonese 0.85 / Bari 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.709 / def 1.012 | Bari attack 1.111 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Bari (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Bari xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Bari kick off?
Cremonese vs Bari kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Bari?
Cremonese 0 - 1 Bari.
Where is Cremonese vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Bari part of?
Cremonese vs Bari is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 24% chance of winning, Bari a 40% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cremonese and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Bari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Bari in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Bari (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.71) and Bari's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (1.11x) against Cremonese's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
24%
4.09
36%
2.80
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.00
1.15
Bari xG
4.09
24%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
8%
12.91
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 15.5 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.15 for Bari, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Cremonese have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 5W 13D 21L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bari's form line: 17W 13D 9L from 39 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Bari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bari are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cremonese.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 0.89 PPG from 19 outings (4W 5D 10L).
On the road, Bari have gone 9W 5D 5L from 19 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.33 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Bari in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Bari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Bari in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 5W 13D 21L in their last 39 games (0.72 PPG), while Bari have gone 17W 13D 9L in their last 39 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.89 PPG; Bari away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Bari in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
2
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Bari?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Bari have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Bari 1-1 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 37%, Bari 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Cremonese and 26% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Bari in 37%; Cremonese have failed to score in 47% of games; Bari in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Cremonese's recent matches and 42% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cremonese's recent games and 26% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Bari tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Bari in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Cremonese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Cremonese 0-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.85 xG and Bari 1.15 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.71 / defence 1.01 against Bari attack 1.11 / defence 0.99, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 24% | Draw 36% | Bari 40%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 46%, Bari 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.72. That form edge translated into the three points. Bari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.