Cremonese 0-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 37 as Cremonese welcome Ascoli to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Cremonese are significantly better at Stadio Giovanni Zini than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ascoli away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Cremonese) versus 1.70 (Ascoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cremonese, 0 for Ascoli and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 4–1 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ascoli trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 58% versus Ascoli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 50% | Ascoli 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.54 xG and Ascoli 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.216 / defence 1.141 | Ascoli attack 0.923 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.077. Data: 36 Cremonese games / 36 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 44% | Draw 30% | Ascoli 26%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Ascoli 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 80% | Ascoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 44% | Draw 30% | Ascoli 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Cremonese 1.54 / Ascoli 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.216 / def 1.141 | Ascoli attack 0.923 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Ascoli xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Ascoli kick off?
Cremonese vs Ascoli kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Ascoli?
Cremonese 0 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Cremonese vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Ascoli part of?
Cremonese vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 44% chance of winning, Ascoli a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cremonese and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Ascoli?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Ascoli in?
Cremonese (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Ascoli (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (1.22) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
44%
2.25
30%
3.35
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.68
1.14
Ascoli xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.14 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese's recent record stands at 19W 9D 8L from 36 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 11L across 36 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.83 PPG, Ascoli on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 11W 6D 1L from 18 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 10W 2D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.31 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Ascoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 19W 9D 8L in their last 36 games (1.83 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 17W 8D 11L in their last 36 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Ascoli away?
Cremonese's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 2.17 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Ascoli in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Cremonese won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
2
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Ascoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Ascoli have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2024, when Ascoli 0-0 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 67%, Ascoli 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 50% (Ascoli).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Ascoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cremonese's games and 56% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 50% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Ascoli tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ascoli defy the odds to beat Cremonese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Cremonese 0-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.54 xG and Ascoli 1.14 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.22 / defence 1.14 against Ascoli attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 44% | Draw 30% | Ascoli 26%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Ascoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 50%, Ascoli 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Ascoli's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.83 PPG, Ascoli 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Ascoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.