Como 1-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Como vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia to face Como in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Como's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 games at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Parma (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 3L across 7 road games this term (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Como's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Parma's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Como — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Parma — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Como 62% and Parma 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 38% | Parma 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.72 xG and Parma 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.120 / defence 0.978 | Parma attack 0.981 / defence 1.511. League average goals — home 1.014 / away 1.169. Parma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.511 — this is suppressing Como's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Como games / 13 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 51% | Draw 25% | Parma 25%. Fair-value odds: Como 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Parma 4.00. Como hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Como are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Como 33% | Parma 71%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 51% | Draw 25% | Parma 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Como 1.72 / Parma 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.120 / def 0.978 | Parma attack 0.981 / def 1.511 | league avg home 1.014 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Como (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Parma xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Parma kick off?
Como vs Parma kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Parma?
Como 1 - 1 Parma.
Where is Como vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Parma part of?
Como vs Parma is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Como a 51% chance of winning, Parma a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Como and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Como and Parma in?
Como (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Parma (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Como's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.98x) against Como's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
51%
1.96
25%
4.07
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Como xG
Total xG
2.84
1.12
Parma xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
4%
22.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Como and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Como and 1.12 for Parma, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Como come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 4D 4L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.31 PPG from 13 outings (4W 5D 4L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Como against 1.31 for Parma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Como's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Como are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.31 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Parma in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Parma in coming into this match?
Como have gone 5W 4D 4L in their last 13 games (1.46 PPG), while Parma have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Parma away?
Como's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.67 PPG; Parma away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Como or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Parma in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Como
4
Draws
3
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Parma?
From 10 meetings on record, Como have won 3, Parma have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Como and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Como 1-0 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 33%, Parma 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Como) and 100% (Parma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Como keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Como have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Como's recent matches and 67% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 17% of Como's matches and 100% of Parma's.
Do Como and Parma tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Parma in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como and Parma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como and Parma finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.72 xG and Parma 1.12 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Parma attack 0.98 / defence 1.51, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 51% | Draw 25% | Parma 25%, with Como to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 38%, Parma 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.46 PPG, Parma 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.