Como 2-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Como vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Como and Cosenza meet at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Como's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Como have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cosenza have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Como's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Como have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cosenza in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Como, 1 for Cosenza and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Cosenza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Como half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (home games).
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 65% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Como 30% | Cosenza 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.19 xG and Cosenza 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.926 / defence 1.060 | Cosenza attack 0.635 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 0.953 / away 1.170. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Como's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Como games / 23 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 42% | Draw 37% | Cosenza 21%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.38 | Draw 2.70 | Cosenza 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Como are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Como 60% | Cosenza 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 42% | Draw 37% | Cosenza 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Como 1.19 / Cosenza 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.926 / def 1.060 | Cosenza attack 0.635 / def 1.349 | league avg home 0.953 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Como (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Como xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Cosenza xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Cosenza kick off?
Como vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Cosenza?
Como 2 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Como vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Cosenza part of?
Como vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Como a 42% chance of winning, Cosenza a 21% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Como and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Como 0W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Como and Cosenza in?
Como (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Cosenza (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Como's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.64x) against Como's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
42%
2.37
37%
2.74
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Como xG
Total xG
1.98
0.79
Cosenza xG
2.37
42%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
6%
15.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Como and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Como and 0.79 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Como have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 7W 10D 6L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza's form line: 4W 7D 12L from 23 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Como are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Como have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (3W 5D 3L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 0W 5D 6L from 11 away games — 0.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Como are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.78 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Como have gone 7W 10D 6L in their last 23 games (1.35 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 4W 7D 12L in their last 23 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Cosenza away?
Como's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.27 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Como won 5-1 on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Como
1
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Como have won 3, Cosenza have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Como and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Como 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Como and Cosenza?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 54%, Cosenza 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 9% for Como and 36% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Como have failed to score in 27% of games; Cosenza in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Como's games and 64% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Como vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 9% of Como's recent games and 36% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Cosenza tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Como edge out Cosenza 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Cosenza 2-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.19 xG and Cosenza 0.79 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Como beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Cosenza attack 0.64 / defence 1.35, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 42% | Draw 37% | Cosenza 21%, with Como to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 30%, Cosenza 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Como (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.