Cittadella 1-2 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cittadella at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cittadella vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ternana make the trip to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato to face Cittadella in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Cittadella (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Cittadella have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ternana have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ternana away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Cittadella against 1.40 for Ternana. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cittadella lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 42% versus Ternana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cittadella 29% | Ternana 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.38 xG and Ternana 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.862 / defence 1.078 | Ternana attack 0.981 / defence 1.554. League average goals — home 1.032 / away 1.040. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.554 — this is suppressing Cittadella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Cittadella games / 31 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 40% | Draw 33% | Ternana 27%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Ternana 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cittadella as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cittadella if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 40% | Ternana 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 40% | Draw 33% | Ternana 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Cittadella 1.38 / Ternana 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.862 / def 1.078 | Ternana attack 0.981 / def 1.554 | league avg home 1.032 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Ternana xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Ternana kick off?
Cittadella vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Ternana?
Cittadella 1 - 2 Ternana.
Where is Cittadella vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Ternana part of?
Cittadella vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 40% chance of winning, Ternana a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cittadella and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Ternana?
Record (1 meetings): Cittadella 0W | Draws 1 | Ternana 0W.
What form are Cittadella and Ternana in?
Cittadella (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Ternana (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cittadella's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Ternana's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (0.98x) against Cittadella's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
40%
2.48
33%
3.04
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.48
1.10
Ternana xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.10 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cittadella's recent record stands at 11W 11D 9L from 31 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 12L across 31 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Cittadella against 1.32 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cittadella have managed 6W 4D 5L from 15 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 3W 7D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cittadella are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.45 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Current Season
Ternana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Ternana in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 11W 11D 9L in their last 31 games (1.42 PPG), while Ternana have gone 11W 8D 12L in their last 31 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Ternana away?
Cittadella's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.47 PPG; Ternana away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Ternana in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cittadella have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cittadella
2
Draws
3
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 1, Ternana have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Ternana 3-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 40%, Ternana 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cittadella) and 47% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Cittadella's games and 80% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cittadella vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cittadella's recent games and 47% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Ternana tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ternana in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ternana defy the odds to beat Cittadella 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Cittadella 1-2 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.38 xG and Ternana 1.10 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ternana outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.86 / defence 1.08 against Ternana attack 0.98 / defence 1.55, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 40% | Draw 33% | Ternana 27%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Ternana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 29%, Ternana 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.42 PPG, Ternana 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.