Cittadella 0-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cittadella vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 9 as Cittadella welcome Cosenza to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cittadella have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cittadella have posted 0W 6D 4L at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cosenza — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cosenza have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Cittadella) versus 1.10 (Cosenza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cittadella, 1 for Cosenza and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cittadella in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 54% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 41% | Cosenza 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.10 xG and Cosenza 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.816 / defence 1.008 | Cosenza attack 1.052 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.137. Data: 46 Cittadella games / 46 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 31% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 37%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Cosenza 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cittadella 70% | Cosenza 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 31% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Cittadella 1.10 / Cosenza 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.816 / def 1.008 | Cosenza attack 1.052 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cosenza xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Cosenza kick off?
Cittadella vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Cittadella 0 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Cittadella vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Cosenza part of?
Cittadella vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 31% chance of winning, Cosenza a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cittadella and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Cosenza?
Record (6 meetings): Cittadella 1W | Draws 4 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Cittadella and Cosenza in?
Cittadella (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cittadella's attack at 0.82x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Cittadella's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
31%
3.18
32%
3.14
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.30
1.21
Cosenza xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.21 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cittadella's recent record stands at 13W 15D 18L from 46 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 16L across 46 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cittadella on 1.17 PPG, Cosenza on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cittadella have managed 7W 8D 7L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 6W 9D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cittadella are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.17 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 13W 15D 18L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 13W 17D 16L in their last 46 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Cosenza away?
Cittadella's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.32 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cosenza in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cittadella's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cittadella
5
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Cosenza?
From 8 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 2, Cosenza have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Cosenza 0-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Cosenza?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 64%, Cosenza 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cittadella) and 23% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Cittadella's recent matches and 46% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cittadella's recent games and 23% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Cosenza tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cittadella's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella and Cosenza finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.10 xG and Cosenza 1.21 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cittadella fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cosenza landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.82 / defence 1.01 against Cosenza attack 1.05 / defence 1.06, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 31% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 37%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 41%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cosenza's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.17 PPG, Cosenza 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.